This Saturday we are blessed with a gorgeous College Football slate, with a number of ranked teams facing off head to head and many other conference games that should be competitive. This article will wade through the multitude of games to help identify some betting value, targeting one ACC match-up, one Pac12 match-up, and finally an SEC battle.
Game 1: Virginia Cavaliers at Duke Blue Devils (Duke -2.5, o/u 52.5)
This ACC conference matchup features a 2-2 Virginia team on the road against the 3-1 Dukies. UVA enters this game with 2 non-conference wins, beating Richmond 34-17 Week 1 and squeaking past Old Dominion 16-14 in Week 3. The Cavaliers are 0-2 against Power 5 opponents, losing 24-3 against Illinois in Week 2 and losing to Syracuse 22-20 in a sloppy Week 4 Friday night game.
On the other side of the ball, Duke opened the season hot with three straight commanding victories over Temple, Northwestern on the road, and North Carolina A&T. In Week 4 they suffered their first loss to the surprising upstart 4-0 Kansas Jayhawks on the road in Lawrence.
The team we’ll be backing Saturday is the home Blue Devils squad, as we think their return home after a road loss Week 4 sets them up for a great bounce back spot. These teams both enter Saturday’s game allowing an average of 19 points per game, but Duke has scored an average of 34 compared to UVA’s 18, and Duke averages almost 80 more yards of offense.
With an unconvincing win over Old Dominion and the Syracuse game mostly being close due to Syracuse’s own errors, this Cavaliers team does not inspire us to be able to beat Duke on the road. Similar to the logic of our Washington play, we suggest ignoring the small spread and instead taking the Blue Devils on the short money line of -140 (playable up to -155 depending on your books lines) to allow us to root simply for a Duke win rather than sweat a short spread late.
Official Play: Duke Blue Devils ML -140
Game 2: California Golden Bears at Washington State Cougars (Wazzu -4, o/u 53.5)
This Pac12 matchup features two 3-1 teams with very similar resumes entering Week 5. Both lost to superior teams, Cal losing Week 3 to Notre Dame and Washington St. losing Week 4 to conference rival Oregon. Somewhat shockingly, both teams have averaged exactly 30.0 points per game while allowing 20.5 points per game. This suggests a tight match-up of two Power 5 teams.
Cal’s three victories have come against Arizona last week, UNLV Week 2, and UC Davis Week 1. While Wazzu has victories over Colorado State Week 3, a road win against then #19 Wisconsin in Week 2, and Idaho Week 1. The best opponent listed is undoubtedly Wazzu’s Wisconsin win. They won convincingly against both Colorado St and Idaho. By comparison, Cal’s victories are against teams ranked 82 or worse in ESPN’s Football Power Index and includes a 20-14 victory in which they struggled over FPI’s 89th ranked UNLV.
As a result, the team we like in this matchup is again the home team, siding with Washington State. The Cougars suffered their first loss of the season last week to Oregon 44-41, a game in which they led 34-22 with 6 minutes to play before allowing 22 straight points to go down 44-34 before scoring on the last play of the game to cover the spread.
We believe the Cougars will come out incredibly motivated letting the upset slip through their hands and will bounce back well at home against a Cal team that’s 0-1 on the road. We expect the Cougars to handle the 4 point spread, but also like the money line number at -175 if you would rather play it safe.
Official Play: Washington State Cougars -3.5 -120 (bought .5 points)
Game 3: #2 Alabama Crimson Tide at #20 Arkansas Razorbacks (Alabama -17, o/u 61)
Our final play of the weekend features two ranked SEC teams. Perennial powerhouse Alabama enters the matchup as the second ranked team in the country boasting a 4-0 record, while Arkansas is ranked twentieth at 3-1 after their crushing loss at Texas A&M last week.
If you are reading this article with any semblance of prior College Football knowledge, Alabama needs no introduction. Their headed by unquestionably the best coach in College Football Nick Saban, and their offense is led by last year’s Heisman Trophy Winner Bryce Young. Aside from a nail biting 20-19 win aided by a last minute field goal on the road at Texas in Week 2, they have beaten their three other opponents of Vanderbilt, Louisiana-Monroe, and Utah State a combined 173-10.
On the other side of the ball, Arkansas is led by Sam Pittman, one of the better lesser known coaches in the game. On offense, they feature a 1-2 punch of mobile Quarterback KJ Jefferson and Running Back Raheim “Rocket” Sanders. Arkansas opened Week 1 beating the then #23 Cincinnati Bearcats, before wins over South Carolina and Missouri State. Last week, they lost 23-21 in heartbreaking fashion to #23 Texas A&M after their last second game winning field goal attempt landed on the top of the upright and bounced out.
Our final play of Saturday is going to be backing the home dogs and taking Arkansas to cover the spread. Listen, I know, I know, fading Saban and the Crimson Tide is not going to make many people rich. Hear me out, going back to Alabama’s last five road games stretching back to last year they have only won one of those five games by more than 17 (49-9 at Mississippi State). With the other games being a 3 point loss to A&M, 2 point wins over Florida and Auburn, and a 1 point win over Texas in this year’s only road game. Arkansas returns home to Razorback Stadium after a heartbreaking road loss looking to bounce back in what is arguably their program’s biggest game all year.
To assume Alabama will lose this game is no doubt foolish. We think the Razorbacks will come out fired up and manage to keep this game close. If you think the Razorbacks may be able to keep it close early but are worried the wheels will come off late, Arkansas 1H +10 is a solid replacement pick. But we think the Hogs will fight until the final whistle.
Official Play: Arkansas Razorbacks +17.5 -120 (bought .5 points)
(Photo: Jack Ellis/CougCenter)