With Alek Manoah having an abysmal 2023 season, many Blue Jays fans had given up on the young right-hander. However, on Thursday, February 15, the Toronto pitchers and catchers reported to the Spring Training facilities in Dunedin. Among those players was Alek Manoah, looking to return to his 2022-self in 2024. Manoah is projected to be SP5 for the Toronto Blue Jays (per RosterResource).
The Alek Manoah Experience
Alek Manoah came up with Toronto in 2021 and immediately became one of the top pitchers in Toronto’s rotation. In his first career start against the New York Yankees, Manoah tallied 7 strikeouts over 6 frames along with the victory. The former first-round pick would finish the 2021 season with a 3.30 ERA and a 2.0 fWAR over 20 starts.
The next season, Manoah took a massive step forward. The righty finished 3rd in AL Cy Young voting, while putting up a 2.24 ERA, 3.35 FIP, and a whopping 4.1 fWAR.
However, in 2023, everything took a tumble, as Manoah went from one of the league’s best pitchers to one of the worst. Toronto’s former ace increased his BB% by approximately 8% between the seasons of 2022 and 2023. His HardHit% also increased by a substantial 13% due to a plethora of mechanical issues.
What Happened to Manoah in 2023?
The issues with Alek Manoah in 2023 were simply based on command and velocity. Manoah’s average fastball velocity was 92.7 MPH in 2023, a near MPH lower than in 2022. Plus, the fastball was thrown for a ball much more often in 2023 rather than 2022. When it was for a strike, Manoah’s diminished velocity allowed hitters to catch up to the fastball and yield a .592 SLG%. According to BaseballSavant, Manoah’s 4-seam-fastball had a Run Value of 19 in 2022, to which it declined to a dismal -10. The lack of command on the four-seamer left Manoah hanging out to dry against competent hitters.
The four-seamer wasn’t the only issue. The sinker, one of Manoah’s most dominant pitches, wasn’t effective at all in 2023. While the sinker was effective in 2022 when utilised on the inside corner (outside corner to lefties), it was a poor pitch in 2023 due to command issues. The sinker lied in the middle of the plate far too often last season, posing another issue for Manoah. Because of that decreased velocity, Manoah couldn’t get away with mistakes over the middle of the dish. The introduction of the pitch clock could have posed a problem for Manoah, but it is still unclear if it was the deciding factor in Manoah’s success in 2023.
The slider also took a massive step back, losing horizontal movement by a sizable margin. In 2022, Manoah used his slider on the outside edge to right-handers and it also tallied a 20.6% PutAway%, becoming a reliable pitch with two strikes to retire batters. However, in 2023, the PutAway% decreased to 14.3%. The main reason why this happened was due to a lack of horizontal movement. The amount of horizontal break from the slider in 2023 was 12.5 inches. The amount of break in 2022 and 2021 were 14.5 inches and 15.5 inches. The more lateral movement, the more swings and misses. In 2023, this issue was amplified.
The Reason to Be Optimistic
Alek Manoah looks fantastic physically. According to Scott Mitchell (@ScottyMitchTSN on “X”) of TSN, Alek Manoah has lost upwards of 30 pounds. With a more physically fit and agile Manoah, Blue Jays fans may be able to see him excel in 2024. This may also allow him to adjust to the pitch clock and the fastened tempo that comes with it.
Wrapping Things Up
All in all, Alek Manoah is one of the more intriguing MLB players for 2024. With such a dismal season in 2023, Manoah’s overall performance for 2024 remains a mystery. However, because of his improved physique coming into Spring Training, the right-hander is in a prime position to succeed. Blue Jays fans are hoping that Alek Manoah has yet to peak and that he can return to being a quality starter for Toronto’s rotation.