2019 was Vladimir Guerrero Jr.‘s rookie season. He took part in the home run hitting contest which is part of MLB’s All Star Game festivities. Guerrero set a single derby record with 91 long balls but due to the bracketing format of the tournament, the Mets Pete Alonso officially won the derby.
2023 was the second Home Run Derby that Guerrero Jr. participated in and this time he was victorious. It might have been one of the highlights of the 2023 season for Vlad. He finished the season with an OPS of .788 which is good but not spectacular, certainly not the kind of stats he was projected to have when he was the number one prospect in all of MLB.
Guerrero Jr. was chosen as the cover athlete for MLB The Show 24, almost certainly because of his derby victory. But is this something that he should look to repeat in 2024?
I’m sure it’s fun to participate in the derby. It’s definitely fun for the fans to watch. And the $1 million prize for the winner certainly doesn’t hurt. But what impact, if any, does HR derby participation have on the regular season?
Let’s take a more in depth look at Guerrero’s 2023. Through his first 38 games, his OPS was .915. If he had managed to maintain that pace all season, that would have been 9th best in MLB, 4th best in the American League. Unfortunately that was not the case. Guerrero dealt with injuries for a significant part of the season. He had a wrist injury in May and missed some time as a results, and wasn’t fully healed when he returned to the lineup. He also had a knee issue that caused him to miss the World Baseball Classic, and which he had an MRI for in September.
Vladdy told ESPN’s Alden Gonzalez that he felt knee soreness not long after the home run derby. It’s not hard to imagine how the derby can take a toll on participants’ bodies. We will never know for certain how much the injuries did (or did not) affect Guerrero’s performance in the latter part of the season; however it’s reasonable to think they had some impact on it.
2024 is a pivotal season, both for the Blue Jays and for Guerrero. For the team, in the next three off seasons, several of their players can be free agent eligible, most notably Guerrero and Bo Bichette after the 2025 season. At the very least, management will need to do some serious re-tooling if they want to extend the competitive window; otherwise we could be looking at a competitive window that will be closing before much longer. For the team, the time to start winning in the playoffs is now. In 2023, the team’s biggest challenge was scoring runs. If they are going to take the next step forward, Guerrero needs to be one of their best hitters.
Guerrero is one of the top offensive talents in the game; however only his results in 2021 have been consistent with that talent. If he wants a nine figure contract extension like a number of MLB’s top players have gotten, he needs to show that 2021 wasn’t a fluke, but that he truly is the generational hitting talent he was projected to be.
Guerrero spent much of the off season improving his physical conditioning and getting in better shape. The hope is not only that his performance will benefit but hopefully he will be a little bit less susceptible to injuries. Let’s hope that’s the way it works out.
For Guerrero’s own sake and for the Blue Jays, he should do everything within reason to give himself the best chance to stay healthy and have a very successful 2024 season. For me, that should include not participating in the derby this season and risking more injuries.
Here is hoping that in 2024, Guerrero will sit the Home Run Derby out.