After an exciting round of 16 in Qatar at the FIFA World Cup 2022, Brazil are pretty heavy favourites of the 8 countries that remain.
- 🇧🇷Brazil +170
- 🇫🇷France +400
- 🇦🇷Argentina +600
- 🏴England +600
- 🇵🇹Portugal +600
- 🇳🇱Netherlands +1600
- 🇲🇦Morocco +4000
- 🇭🇷Croatia +4000
The two most highlightable teams are Brazil and England. While it’s easy to flirt with France at +400, England offer far more value at +600. Given Foden starts and Southgate doesn’t tactically sewer them, the 3 Lions have looked far more dangerous than their French counterparts. While England have only really been tested against the United States and drew 0-0, they deserved a result and had key players out of the lineup. I would have guessed England would have been given slightly better odds considering they’re undefeated and have shown a fortress-like goal stopping regiment.
France have shown more inconsistencies, falling to Tunisia 1-0 despite having 66% of the ball. Add France’s missing superstars in Karim Benzema, Ngolo Kanté, Paul Pogba and Christopher Nkunku. They’re a shell of the squad that won in 2018 despite their remaining young talent and Olivier Giroud.
If you’re too shy for England at +600, you likely don’t trust Gareth Southgate’s squad selection, substitutions and tactics. Congratulations, you’re a competent fan. That mean’s your play is Brazil, they are scary and +170 could be considered stealing with the rate they’re performing at full strength. Brazil’s depth has allowed them to rotate their squad with confidence throughout the tournament leaving plenty of stars with fresher legs opposed to other squads.
The Netherlands are a very good team, performing at the right time. Coming up against Argentina will be a true challenge unlike any other they have seen this World Cup so far. The Netherlands proved their worth against the United States and it’s far better than +1600, winning 3-1 handily and escaping their group undefeated.
Argentina are fairly spot on at +600, some, including I feel that the line is being propped up by the world’s desire for Lionel Messi to win a World Cup. Yet if you watch the squad play, Argentina for the first time in a long time are far more than just Lionel Messi. They are oozing quality and confidence all over the pitch, and in their reserves. While +600 may be generous, it’s not highway robbery compared to the remaining lines.
For Portugal to have equal outright odds with England is a bit of a head scratcher, let alone Argentina. Portugal performed incredibly in their round of 16 match with Switzerland, where they pummelled them 6-1 after benching Cristiano Ronaldo for the first time in a World Cup since the 2006 group stage in Mexico, when Cristiano was just 21. While Portugal have shown spells of extreme dominance, they also lack consistency, which has been a major key for past winners.
Morocco and Croatia are both happy to be here. Morocco ousted Spain in penalties to find their way here while Croatia handled a hot Japanese team, also in penaltiesl. Unfortunately for Croatia, they’re about to be fed to the beast that is Brazil. Barring a miracle, Croatia’s well of good fortunes has likely run dry and Brazil will be taking no prisoners in the round of 8. Morocco will face Portugal on Saturday, a draw they likely won’t be displeased with, considering Portugal’s recent lineup and locker room instability with Ronaldo. If you are a long-shot bet lover, a true underdog appreciator, Morocco is your team.
In terms of pure value for your bet, here’s how I’d rank them:
- 🏴England +600
- 🇧🇷Brazil +170
- 🇫🇷France +400
- 🇳🇱Netherlands +1600
- 🇦🇷Argentina +600
- 🇲🇦Morocco +4000
- 🇵🇹Portugal +600
- 🇭🇷Croatia +4000
Brazil (-275) vs. Croatia (+800)
The Brazilians will be more than satisfied with their quarterfinal draw, with Croatia being tied as least likely to come home with the World Cup. Not only are the South Americans just finding their form with the return of Neymar Jr., but they’re gaining confidence at an alarming rate.
It’s difficult to see a scenario where Croatia are able to best Brazil, but if there is one it would more than likely take penalties and be due to a nil-nil draw after 130 minutes. This Croatian team has a knack for keeping their opposition off the board while holding on to possession with short quick passing. Croatia are averaging 55% possession at the World Cup, including 58% against Japan and 65% against Morocco.
Unfortunately for them, Brazil has been most dangerous on the counter-attack. Struggling to score in possession against Cameroon has drawn criticism from pundits around the game, yet Brazil’s confidence without the ball strikes plenty of fear.
Notable bets: Brazil ML (-275), Vinicius Jr. anytime goalscorer (+175).
Netherlands (+260) vs. Argentina (+120)
This has all the makings of a great match. Argentina are slightly favoured to qualify, despite wavering performances in the group stage. On paper Argentina are the better side, but the Netherlands have been performing where it matters, on the pitch.
I don’t see the Dutch having the same kind of leeway against Argentina as they did against the United States, Qatar, Ecuador and Senegal. The Argentinian back line has shown incredible structure and fearlessness defending their end, something Dutch striker duo Memphis Depay and Cody Gakpo haven’t seen the likes of internationally.
Notable bets: Argentina ML (+120), Netherlands to qualify (+130), Lautaro Martinez anytime goalscorer (+275).
Morocco (+475) vs. Portugal (-150)
Portugal are very likely to win this match. Though, Morocco have played incredibly well this World Cup and their performance against Spain was historic to say the least. This Portugal clash is setting up similarly, and if the Moroccans are able to swing some of that momentum into this Quarterfinal bout there is no telling how much they could trouble the Portuguese.
With massive international support for Morocco as gigantic tournament underdogs and for Portugal as Cristiano Ronaldo nears the end of his illustrious career missing that illusive World Cup trophy. The world will tune into this match with eager eyes as the storybook ending plays out. No saying who’s will end happier.
Notable bets: Morocco to qualify (+250), Over 2.5 goals (+120), Matias Goncalo Ramos anytime goalscorer (+210).
England (+200) vs. France (+140)
Last and certainly not least, the matchup everyone has their eyes on. Whoever manages to qualify from this matchup will be heavily favoured to play Brazil in the World Cup Final on December 18th.
France are slight favourites to win and qualify in this matchup despite turbulence in the group stage. England on the other hand have been rock solid yet haven’t been tested by anything remotely close to the French team.
It could be lineage bias but England have given no reason to be doubted, while France have given few, but some. Not to mention the self-proclaimed Mbappé stopper, English right-back Kyle Walker. Walker’s pace and strength optimizes him in his pursuit of stopping one of the world’s most prolific goal scorers. A mission he’s been tasked with on multiple occasions in the Champions League, offering wavering success.
France’s back line have shown lapses in concentration, something that can’t happen against England’s attacking trio of Foden, Kane and Saka. Foden and Kane have shown an uncanny link-up ability in recent matches, something I foresee troubling France early and often.
Notable Bets: England ML (+200), England to qualify (+110), Phil Foden over 0.5 assists (+550), Phil Foden anytime goalscorer (+450), Kylian Mbappé anytime goalscorer (+175).