Sunday’s World Cup Final features storyline after storyline. From the final stretch of the Golden Boot race, to Messi’s potential last world cup match and 23-year-old Kylian Mbappé and an injury-ridden French side reaching a second-straight final after glory in Russia in 2018.
Last time they met
The last time these two squads met, then 19-year-old Mbappé contributed 2 goals and forced a penalty which teammate Antoine Griezmann converted to lead France to a 4-3 win in the 2018 World Cup Round of 16. The match was incredibly competitive and featured 8 yellow cards, 5 for the South American’s. Argentina secured 59% possession while both squads managed 9 shots with 4 on target. The difference for Les Bleus’? One save by Hugo Lloris on a clear chance from Lionel Messi in the 85th minute.
Previewing the matchup
Both countries have won the FIFA World Cup Trophy on two occasions. For France it came in 1998 and 2018, for Argentina it was 1978 and then again in 1986. If France manage to remain champions of the world, they will only be 3rd to do so in the history of the competition. Italy reigned victorious for 8 years after winning in 1934 and again in 1938, and Brazil did the same in 1958 and 1962 with 17 and 21-year-old Pele.
Argentina come into this final with utter confidence following a 3-0 blowout of Croatia, who hadn’t conceded more than a single goal in a match since June 3rd. A streak that lasted 11 matches and survived run-ins with France twice, Denmark twice, Brazil, Belgium, Morocco and Canada.
France are ever-so-slightly favoured to walk away with the trophy though many sports books are keeping even odds around +180 aside and +200 for a draw at full-time. Both teams enter the contest having lost 1 of their 6 games in Qatar thus far (5-0-1).
Argentina dropped their opening match of the tournament 2-1 to Saudi Arabia. Despite the loss Argentina dominated, leaving with 69% possession and 6 shots on goal on 15 attempts. The Saudi side managed 2 on goal which both found the back of the net, from just 3 attempts.
France’s loss was at the the hands of Tunisia. A 1-0 defeat, mostly chalked up to having already very likely secured a spot in the knock-out rounds. In the match France did not start Mbappé, Griezmann, Dembele or Rabiot and didn’t even feature Giroud, Lloris, Koundé, Hernández or Upamecano.
Probable starting XI’s
Argentina (4-4-2):
Martinez; Molina, Romero, Otamendi, Acuna; Paredes, De Paul, Fernandez, Mac Allister; Messi, Àlvarez.
France (4-3-3):
Lloris; Koundé, Varane, Konaté, Hernández; Griezmann, Tchouameni, Rabiot; Dembele, Giroud, Mbappé.
Predictions and good value bets
I can’t see this game being decided easily in 90 minutes. At +200, a draw at full-time is amazing value considering the similarities between these squads and the consistency and versatility they’ve displayed defensively.
Bet: Draw (+200).
In his return to the ultimate game, bettors should be looking for Messi boosts from their sports books. He’s currently given best odds to score anytime +162, which is a hammer and a half. If you’re an Argentine skeptic and can’t see hope for them against the French fearsome back-4 you can triple your money with Mbappé anytime +200 which is probably even better value than Messi, just don’t be mad at me if Giroud floods the scoresheet with headers who sits at +300 anytime, decent value there.
Bets: Lionel Messi anytime goalscorer (+162), Kylian Mbappé anytime goalscorer (+200), Olivier Giroud anytime goalscorer (+300).
Though both of these teams exhibit world class defensive units, both also love to get forward and attack in possession. With both sides always featuring extreme speed and class on the wings, if the full backs are going to be getting as forward as they generally do, there will be vulnerabilities exploited at the back of both lines.
With the goals over/under set at 2.5, the over is a clear favourite here. Not only is it sitting at an eye-catching +150, but it represents a game featuring handfuls of players on both sides looking to make an immediate impact for their country in their pursuit of bringing home the world cup.
Bets: Over 2.5 goals in the match (+150).
I know, I know. Messi needs to win the world cup to complete his perfect career. I want to see that as badly as everyone else, but bets can’t be made from the heart. While it is easy to see this game being decided either in extra-time or by way of penalties, I fear what France may be able to uncork over the duration of 130 minutes is far too much for Argentina. While there is certainly hope for Messi, he has a mountain to overcome in the form of Aurélien Tchouaméni, Jules Koundé, Raphaël Varane, Ibrahima Konaté and Theo Hernández.
Bets: France to lift the trophy (-110).