Featherweight champion Alexander Volkanovski defends his title for the sixth time tomorrow night against the undefeated Georgian-Spaniard Ilia Topuria. Although Volk remains a slight favourite, his loss to Islam Makhachev just four months ago has left fans wondering if the 35 year-old Aussie’s best years are behind him, or, if he’ll bounce back to what has otherwise been a near-perfect career.
So…which is it?
Well – before he lost to Islam at UFC 284, people thought Volk was pretty much unbeatable and to be fair, you couldn’t really blame them. The man from down-undah was on a 22 fight win streak and had won all 12 of his fights in the UFC, half of them against top 5 opponents.
Prior to that, Volk won 13 of 14 professional fights with his only loss coming in 2013…at welterweight. Yes, you read that correctly. Our 5 ‘6, 145 lb short king started his MMA career fighting at 170 lbs.
Getting back to the point though, Volk has always been THAT guy and as far as the featherweight division is concerned – he still is.
Although he’s lost 2 of his last 3 fights, they both happened while trying to move up to lightweight (155 lbs). Not only that, but they came against the notoriously big lightweight Islam Makhachev who also happens to be the #1 pound for pound fighter in the UFC.
These losses weren’t a complete disaster either, at least, not the first one. After five rounds of back and forth Volk finished the fight on top of seemingly worse for wear Makhachev, leaving many fans surprised when the judges ruled in the Dagestani’s favour.
They weren’t alone either.
On his podcast UFC commentator Joe Rogan had this to say about the fight:
“I thought he (Volk) beat him. I’ve watched it over and over again and it really comes down to that second round and I gave him the advantage…I watched it many times.”
His guest, former #2 ranked UFC welterweight Jorge Masvidal agreed, saying: “When I watched it the second time, I still think Volk won man”
Of course, Makachev left nothing to speculation in their second fight, but it’s important to remember that Volk accepted that fight on 12 days notice while supposedly fighting some rather serious mental health demons. Not exactly ideal pre-fight conditions, especially against someone as skilled as Makhachev.
Back in his division with a full camp however? Volk is a different beast.
When he returned to featherweight after his first loss to Islam, Volk reminded everyone exactly who they were dealing with. In what looked like a true mismatch, Volk dominated #3 ranked Yair Rodriguez for three rounds before finally knocking him out. Before that, the Aussie knocked out Chan Sung Jung (better known as the Korean Zombie) and beat the daylights out of #1 contender and former champ Max Holloway in what was supposed to be a close fight. Spoiler, it wasn’t.
By now you’re probably thinking “We get it! The champ has been good, duh!”
But the point I’m trying to make is that during his last two years fighting at featherweight, not only has Volk been good, but he’s given us no reason to think he’s declining and if anything, he’s gotten better.
So, back down in his rightful division, a full-camp to prepare and his demons (hopefully) behind him, Volk will bounce back no problem… right?
Well, maybe.
You see, what worries everyone isn’t that Volk lost. But how he lost.
When a seemingly unbeatable fighter loses, people will inevitably speculate. When they lose twice in the same year? That speculation turns to doubt. But when that second loss comes from a kick to the ol’ melon? Well, that doubt turns to fear.
It isn’t completely unwarranted either. Volk was considered unbeatable a year ago but so was Kamaru Usman right up until Leon Edwards’ shin connected with his face. Before then, the former welterweight champ was on a 15 fight win streak, he had defended his belt five times and was 56 seconds away from doing it again when Edwards turned his brain off. Since that fight, the former champ has gone 0-2 and seems increasingly less likely to ever reclaim his throne.
He wouldn’t be the first either. Remember Rhonda Rousey? She was 12-0 and had defended her belt six times before a head kick from Holly Holm put her to sleep. She returned to the octagon a year later only to get knocked out again by Amanda Nunes, ultimately deciding to hang up the gloves for good.
This has even happened in Volk’s own division. Featherweight G.O.A.T Jose Aldo was on a 15 fight win streak and his 8th title defense when a right cross from Connor McGregor ended his night. That wasn’t a head kick and Aldo reclaimed his belt seven months later, but he quickly lost it again to Max Holloway and proceeded to lose six of his next 11.
Usman, Rousey, Aldo, they were all unbeatable. They were unbeatable – until something changed.
Was it suffering their first significant loss? Getting knocked out for the first time in their professional careers? Losing their belt?
Who knows, probably all of the above.
Regardless, there’s an unknowable element to how a fighter will recover from a knockout and Volk is no different. Adding to the uncertainty, he recently admitted that the knockout wasn’t just his first in the UFC, but his first ever, including during sparring and on the rugby pitch.
If that wasn’t bad enough, the guy he’s looking to bounce back against is a lightning quick, polished boxer that has terrorized his last few opponents. In his last fight the 26 year-old Topuria looked leagues above #6 ranked Josh Emmett, outclassing the American the whole fight with squeaky-clean boxing and some timely low-kicks.
So, did the kick from Makhachev permanently dimVolk’s lights and leave Topuria primed to make his mark on the UFC?
Or, will Volk come back brighter than ever and further cement himself as one of the greatest featherweights in UFC history?
If I was a betting man (which I am), then my money would be on Volk (which it is).
Don’t get me wrong Topuria’s future is bright and he looks primed for a successful career. However, he hasn’t fought anyone remotely close to Volk’s skill level and while that hasn’t stopped rising stars before, until Topuria proves himself with a top 3 win, anybody confidently saying he beats Volk tomorrow might have suffered a head kick of their own.
Of course anything can happen inside that Octagon and karate master Jayden Smith taught us to never say never. But until I see Volkanovski even remotely falter at 145 lbs, I’m shutting the noise out and putting my faith in the champ.