The 2023 MLB season is in the books for the Toronto Blue Jays. In spite of a number of moves that were made with the goal of a deep playoff run this season, the Jays are still looking for their first postseason victory since 2016.
General manager Ross Atkins’ stated goal last offseason was to improve run prevention (pitching and defence) and to his credit he did accomplish that. Unfortunately it was their inability, as a team, to score runs that ultimately led to their downfall. In the two wild card games vs the Minnesota Twins, the Jays managed to score just one run.
In a season where many baseball pundits picked the Jays to at least go to the World Series, if not win it all, they actually took a step backwards. In 2022 they had a record of 92-70 and secured the 1st wild card spot with a few days left in the regular season. In 2023 they went 89-73 and barely squeaked in to the 3rd wild card spot on the second last day of the regular season.
In a nutshell (with some noteworthy exceptions of course) when the Jays won games in 2023, they did so with well above average pitching and defence, and enough timely hitting to support it. When they didn’t, it was because the offence couldn’t put enough runs on the board.
The question at this point is…
What do the Jays do next?
Personally I was really hoping they would replace Ross Atkins as general manager and I know that many other Jays fans shared that hope. For better or worse, Mark Shapiro stated at his season ending press conference on October 12th that Atkins would indeed return as GM in 2024.
Another thing Shapiro stated unequivocally is that the Jays would not be a rebuilding team in 2024 and honestly with the talented core they still have under contract or team control it wouldn’t make much sense to do so now.
So they need to re-tool in the hopes that 2024 can be the year they have a deep October run.
There is reason to hope that run prevention will continue to be a strength of the team next season. It’s also reasonable to think that it might not be as much of one as it was in 2023. The Jays could lose two of their best defenders to free agency, as 3B Matt Chapman (+12 DRS, +5 OAA) and CF Kevin Kiermaier (+18 DRS, +13 OAA) could both very well be playing elsewhere in 2024.
In terms of the pitching, most of their staff is under contract or team control in 2024. Hyun-Jin Ryu and Jordan Hicks are free agent eligible. While Ryu looked decent when he first came off the IL, his 4.36 era in his last 7 starts has him looking replaceable. Hicks was a terrific trade deadline acquisition for the team and losing him will hurt if he goes elsewhere.
The bigger issue might be with the returning core. A number of them are veterans over 30 and while some may have had career seasons in 2023, it’s no guarantee they will repeat the success they had a year ago. A certain amount of regression wouldn’t be a shock, Jays fans need to hope that eventual decline is gradual and not drastic.
It’s not hard to see that the Jays really need to improve their offensive output to have a more balanced team in 2024.
They need to find a way to add some proven offensive talent. In addition to needing to improve what they did at the plate in 2023, their most consistent hitter last season, Brandon Belt (.858 OPS) has mentioned he is strongly considering retirement. Assuming this happens, and Kiermaier and Chapman also leave, Daulton Varsho, a strong defender who has played CF, can be used as the everyday CF. So they are looking for a LF, a 3B and a DH.
Much has been made of the fact that this year’s free agent class isn’t particularly deep. The Jays need to find a way to add, without subtracting pieces that will make them less competitive. There are some free agents available (remarkably some baseball insiders have mentioned both Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Teoscar Hernandez as possibilities). Shohei Ohtani is the big free agent prize available and sorry Jays fans, I don’t see him signing with Toronto. The Jays might also need to consider trades or internal promotions to fill available spots. Could Orelvis Martinez, who will be 22 on opening day 2024 and who hit 58 HRs in the last two MiLB seasons be ready to help the big club?
Even more than adding to the roster, the Jays badly need improved performances from returning players if they hope to contend. Bo Bichette, Vladimir Guerrero jr, George Springer, Alejandro Kirk, Daulton Varsho, Cavan Biggio and Santiago Espinal all had OPS numbers below their career average. Guillermo Martinez has been their hitting coach since 2019. On more than one occasion during that span, the Jays as a team or certain individual hitters have sought help elsewhere to help with struggling offence. It seems like the approach he uses isn’t getting the desired results.
It’s time for the team to look elsewhere, preferably to someone who has played in MLB and had success hitting. There appears to be no shortage of available, interested candidates. Fan favourite Edwin Encarnacion has made appearances with the team last season. Victor Martinez has been with the team as a special assistant. Even Matt Hague, the hitting coach with the Jays AAA affiliate Buffalo Bisons has been praised a great deal by players called up from AAA as having helped them improve their offence a great deal. And that’s just a few possibilities. There are plenty of others.
Free agent players can sign with new teams starting five days after the World Series ends. Jays fans will be watching with keen interest to see what they might have to look forward to next season.
(Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports)