On Thursday, June 6th at 8:30 PM EST the Dallas Mavericks will visit the Boston Celtics at the TD Boston Garden for Game 1 of the 2024 NBA Finals. While the Celtics enter the opening contest as the series’ favourites (-230), the Mavericks (+180) are getting comfortable succeeding in the underdog role.
Dallas Mavericks (+180)
50-32
5th in Western Conference
All NBA: Luka Doncic (1st Team)
Mavericks’ Road to the NBA Finals
For the Dallas Mavericks the 2023-24 regular season was a roller coaster of streaking success partnered with dramatic lulls in productivity. Their 9-3 start had them atop the western standings in mid-November. As the schedule started to settle in, the Mavs found themselves slowly but surely slipping, having dropped all the way down to 8th by January 22nd with a 24-19 record. Their W/L total worsened to 26-23 before a timely turnaround in the form of a 24-7 run allowed them to clinch the 5 seed with 2 games remaining.
The notable midseason changes were the acquisitions of Daniel Gafford from the Washington Wizards and P.J. Washington from the Charlotte Hornets, both at the trade deadline on February 8th. Since his move to Dallas, P.J. saw 32.2 minutes of action per game, he has contributed an average line of 11.7 PPG, 6.2 REB, 1.5 APG, 1.2 STL and 0.9 BLK and in his 29 games with the Mavs he started all but the first. Gafford has also played in all 29 games after his deal, starting 21. While averaging just 21.5 regular season minutes per game, Gafford made his impact felt, sustaining a 19.2 PER, shooting 78% from the field and blocking 1.9 shot attempts. Dallas maintained a 21-8 regular season record with both in the lineup, 33-13 including playoffs.
While displaying glimpses of dominance, the Mavs experienced numerous injuries that hindered their ability to sail through season. Half of their two headed dog guard-duo Kyrie Irving missed 24 games, while the other half, Luka Doncic missed 12 of his own. Along with the core two, Maxi Kleber missed 39 games, rookie center Dereck Lively missed 27, Dante Exum also missed 27, Josh Green missed 25, Dwight Powell missed 19 and the list continues.
Mavs’ Playoff Surgency
Upon arrival in the NBA Playoffs the Dallas Mavericks kept the momentum rolling in a winning direction, overcoming difficult series at every stop along the way.
Mavs’ Odds by Series
First Round (4-2)
Dallas Mavericks (5), -110
Los Angeles Clippers (4), -102
Conference Finals (4-1)
Minnesota Timberwolves (3), -180
Dallas Mavericks (5), +146
Second Round (4-2)
Oklahoma City Thunder (1), -122
Dallas Mavericks (5), +100
Finals
Boston Celtics (1), -230
Dallas Mavericks (5), +180
In each round Dallas have been tasked with ousting a higher seed, and in all but their opening series oddsmakers have ruled them the more likely to be sent on vacation. They went on to clear the west 4-2, 4-2 and 4-1, finishing their conference off with a swift 12-5 record. In the matchup that saw the Mavs disprove oddsmakers in their most exuberant fashion, facing their largest odds-based mismatch of the playoffs, the Minnesota Timberwolves. Dallas pushed Anthony Edwards and the Wolves to the brink of a sweep, before conceding Game 4 at home and taking the 5th and the conference title handily in hostile territory.
Boston Celtics (-230)
64-18 (12-2 Playoffs)
1st in Eastern Conference
All NBA: Jayson Tatum (1st Team)
All Defense: Jrue Holiday (2nd Team), Derrick White (2nd Team)
Celtics’ Road to the NBA Finals
The Boston Celtics 2023-24 regular season can be described in a multitude of ways, all of which would hint at nothing but smooth sailing. The Celtics dominated the Eastern Conference standings this season and have seemingly had all but a competitor on their level in the conference. To put Boston’s sheer dominance on a timeline, well, let’s just say that the storybook of the 2023-24 East is entirely and thoroughly Celtic green.
Cs’ Odds by Series
First Round (4-1)
Boston Celtics (1), -8000
Miami Heat (8), +1800
Conference Finals (4-0)
Boston Celtics (1), -1300
Indiana Pacers (6), +730
Second Round (4-1)
Boston Celtics (1), -1600
Cleveland Cavaliers (4), +820
Finals
Boston Celtics (1), -230
Dallas Mavericks (5), +180
As if the regular season wasn’t easy enough for them, Boston continued their success in the playoffs. After winning 4-1, 4-1 and sweeping the Eastern Conference Finals 4-0, the Cs found themselves 12-2 and awaiting their finals opponent early.
Clearly no one has proven able to stop the title favourites this season, well that is, except for the Denver Nuggets.
Fortunately for Bostonians, they won’t have to test those waters while facing elimination. Instead, the determined Dallas Mavericks found their way through the opposing conference and here we are.
Head-to-Head
In 2023-24 the Dallas Mavericks haven’t seen a shred of success in their meetings with the gaudy green giants. In 2 contests, the Celtics got the better of the Mavs on both occasions improving their all-time record to 46-40 against Dallas including 4-in-a-row dating back to November 2022.
BOS 119 @ DAL 110
January 22nd, 2024
The first game was played on January 22nd in Dallas. MVP-candidate Jayson Tatum led the Porzingis-less Celtics with 39 PTS, 11 REB, 5 AST, 3 STL, 2 BLK, 0 TO and was +27 on 11-21 FG, 2-8 3PT and 15-19 FT in 41 MIN. Batman’s Robin was no disappearing act either as Jaylen Brown provided 34 PTS, 3 REB, 4 AST, 2 BLK and 0 TO on 13-22 FG, 2-7 3PT and 6-9 FT in 36.5 MIN. The dynamic duo combined for 73 as the Celtics escaped Texas with a 119-110 win.
Despite the loss, Dallas’ own MVP-candidate Luka Doncic wasn’t ready to go down without a fight. Luka provided a triple-double, including 33 points of his own, 18 REB, 13 AST, 2 STL and 0 TO on 12-30 FG, 2-8 3PT and 7-11 FT in almost 40 minutes of action. Kyrie added 23 PTS, 6 REB, 3 AST, 2 STL and 1 TO to the totals.
DAL 110 @ BOS 138
March 1st, 2024
On the first day of March the Mavericks travelled to Boston with the aspirations of avenging Luka’s 30-point triple-double loss, only to leave with the exact same footnotes and an even larger deficit. Luka came to play once again, managing 37 PTS, 12 REB, 11 AST on 14-25 FG, 3-9 3PT and 6-8 FT in 36.5 MIN. The Mavericks lost 138-110.
Not only did Luka provide similarly tremendous output, but the Mavs still accumulated the same point total as the prior loss, but this time being beaten by 28 points. Kyrie’s 19 PTS on 9-23 wasn’t enough to counter the Celtics’ healthy big-3. Seven Celtics made their way into double digits in scoring, and each of the big three having at least 24, with a 32-bomb from Tatum.
Even with Luka’s ridiculous 70 PTS, 30 REB and 24 AST in the two head-to-head matchups with Boston, the Mavericks finished the season series 0-2 with a -38 +/-.
MVP Candidates Face Off
Interestingly, this year’s finals matchup includes both the 3rd and 6th highest receivers of MVP votes this season.
As it stands prior to Game 1, Tatum has the upper hand for Finals MVP odds at -125 with Luka trailing at +210, followed by Jaylen Brown +700, Kyrie +1800, Kristaps Porzingis +3300 and Derrick White +3500.
Odds via Fanduel.com