Major League Baseball is always unique from season-to-season, and the 2024 campaign has had plenty of surprises in terms of teams overachieving in relation to their preseason expectations. However, the Cleveland Guardians have certainly had an excellent start to the season, but is this success sustainable?
A Top-10 Offence… Or Is It?
The Cleveland Guardians are currently sitting atop a competitive AL Central division at 24-14 (.632 WPCT). Despite the solid record (6th-best in MLB), Cleveland has only two hitters above 70 ABs that have an OPS above .800, with those being OF Steven Kwan (.903) and 1B Josh Naylor (.926). Kwan is currently on the IL with a hamstring injury and is expected to miss approximately 4 weeks, a blow to an offence that will make a sizable impact, especially due to the fact that Kwan is leading the AL in batting average at .353. Considering the OPS totals for Cleveland, it’s shocking that they average nearly 5 runs per game. However, it’s worth noting that the Guardians have played a league-most 8 extra-inning games, where offence is favoured with the “ghost runner” on second base to start each half-frame.
Problems With the Pitching Staff
To add onto the lacklustre offensive numbers, Cleveland’s starting rotation has also been mediocre. The average ERA for their starting rotation of SPs Tanner Bibee, Logan Allen, Triston McKenzie, Carlos Carrasco, and Ben Lively is 4.72. The run support has been plentiful, as Bibee, Allen, and McKenzie all average at least 4 runs of support per start, with Bibee averaging a whopping 6 scores. Plus, ace Shane Bieber suffered season-ending Tommy John surgery, leaving the rotation without a sense of direction and a clear SP1.
Tanner Bibee was meant to be a solid SP2 after his impressive rookie season in 2023. According to baseballsavant.com, Bibee’s main issue has been the decline in his fastball. To begin, he’s lost nearly 1.5 inches of horizontal movement, impacting the run on his fastball and the ability to consistently jam hitters up-and-in. Also, the 4SFB has lost 0.6 MPH in velocity, going from an average of 94.9 MPH in 2023 to 94.3 MPH in 2024. In 2023, the fastball was used more with two strikes (18.1% putaway%) up and out of the zone. In 2024, the fastball has been located middle-middle or belt-high. With the decrease in velocity and movement horizontally, hitters have had an easier time getting to the four-seamer, resulting in the pitch’s abysmal -11 run value.
Can Clase Close Consistently?
It seems that the only saving grace for the Guardians is their elite bullpen, which ranks 2nd in MLB in bullpen ERA at 2.40. However, one of the causes for concern is CP Emmanuel Clase. Clase hasn’t been known as a real strikeout pitcher throughout his career, topping out at an 8.94 K/9 for his career. With the lacklustre strikeout numbers, Clase has focused on being a ground ball pitcher. However, his 2024 GB% of 47.8% is a career-low, while his 26.1% Flyball% in 2024 is also a career-worst. Cleveland is in the top-10 for the amount of games decided by 1-run, so Clase’s GB and FB rates seem to be a concern if the Guardians are to remain in close contests.