Being 22-27 with the trade deadline just 7 games away on February 9th, the Toronto Raptors have some serious decisions to make. Player options for Fred VanVleet, Gary Trent Jr., and Otto Porter Jr. make things even more interesting.
Before any educated decisions can be made, we first must ask…
How Bad are the Raptors?
Well, currently sitting 12th in the Eastern Conference with the 6th worst record in the NBA, things are looking bleak to say the least. But somehow, the Raptors are only a half-game out of the playoff play-in tournament. Strangely, Toronto’s +0.5 average point differential is 8th in the East, and if wins and losses told a similar story, they’d be much closer to .500, or even slightly above.
The Raptors defence has been great despite their .449 win percentage, averaging the league’s 8th-lowest opponent points per game with 112.1 and a league-best +3.3 steals per game differential. The problem has been on the other side of the ball, where the Dino’s 45.2% field goal rate has them tied for 2nd worst in the Association with the Charlotte Hornets. From range, it’s been much of the same story thus far, shooting just 33.4% from beyond the 3-point arc, 3rd worst in the NBA, less than a percent above the Rockets who are 11-38 and the Hornets who are 14-37. Being a top-5 transition team on offence, the Raptors’ low shooting percentages are slightly more horrifying. On top of that the Raptors have managed to lose consistently, despite averaging a league-high +7.6 average field goals attempted differential, almost double the Suns who are in 2nd. Honestly, kind of impressive.
So what do we know?
- Their point differential demonstrates they deserve more wins
- Their defence demonstrates they deserve more wins
- Their shooting is absolutely horrible, and has consistently lost them close games all year despite taking WAY more shots than their opponents
Alright, so where do Bobby and Masai go from here?
Option A: Trade for a Piece and Depth
Let’s start with a controversial option, not that they all aren’t. The Raptors possess significant assets aside from their roster of players, including all of their first-round draft picks for the foreseeable future. Meaning they can offer any first until 2029, and considering the league’s policy on dealing back-to-back first-rounders, 4 of them are considered tradable assets. On top of that the Raps have only dealt one second-rounder (2024, in the Marc Gasol trade *worth it) leaving next year’s, and 2025-2029. That’s 10 tradable picks to work with to bolster this current squad.
The question then becomes, how do you improve this team and make them an immediate playoff threat? I’m not sure what should be more of a priority, acquiring consistent shooting to support the perimeter players or ensuring we have a versatile centre that can play 30+ minutes any given night and erase the question mark around the big man spot for Nick Nurse.
If the Raptors are to turn the tides, I’m convinced they need to address both holes prior to the deadline. Addressing shooting would likely look like Eric Gordon, who will probably require a pick-swap of sorts. Gordon has drawn interest from the Bucks, Lakers and Suns, but the Rockets are hoping to get a first-rounder in exchange, which is highly unlikely. Another viable option could be Mike Conley, who currently has interest supposedly from the Clippers, Lakers and Timberwolves. Conley has been seen by teams around the league as a cheaper alternative to exploring a Fred VanVleet deal with the Raptors. If the Raptors are looking to cash in a little more, they could explore the possibility of bringing D’Angelo Russell up north. Russell has had stalls in his contract extension discussions with the Minnesota Timberwolves and has popped up on the radar of multiple playoff-bound championship threats such as Phoenix, Miami, Dallas and the LA Clippers. Terry Rozier has been floated around the trading block as well, but I don’t see him being a good option for the Raptors’ immediate future.
Bringing in a rim protector would be far more difficult considering the market. A main 7-footer being shopped is Mohamed Bamba from the Orlando Magic, he fits the Raptors lengthy defensive-minded system but he has served questionable minutes this season (just 17.4 per game). Teams have reportedly reached out to the Atlanta Hawks to discuss possible trade packages surrounding John Collins, who could be seen as a very viable option for Toronto. Collins can knock down the 3 and protect the rim. He’s a high-IQ 5, who has a lot to offer the Raptors in terms of quality minutes on both sides of the ball. His ability to stretch out a defence, set hard picks, pop or roll hard, and bang down low would add a much needed dimension to the Raptors stagnant half-court offence.
In terms of cap space, the Raps are on track to be operating over the cap as soon as this summer. Nothing new considering they have operated as an above-cap team for quite awhile now.
If these options scare you as much as they do me, you may be more favourable to…
Option B: Blow it the Hell Up
The upcoming player options of Fred, Gary and Otto leave the Raptors in a bit of a swing-state regarding their salary cap. If each player declines said option, the Raptors would be under the league’s salary cap and would have room to make a splash in free agency. If those options are picked up, it’s a completely different story.
Blowing it the hell up entails picking your pieces for the future and then surrounding them with young, high-potential talent, while subsequently relieving quality veterans and high-value trade pieces of their Raptors’ duties. Scottie Barnes is definitely the main piece of the future, and he is a quality youngster to build around. Unfortunately the remaining Raptors’ offer little to no future value aside from O.G. Anunoby who has been highly sought after, and is becoming more frequently mentioned in trade discussions as we inch closer to the deadline.
Fred would likely be the first domino to fall, seeing as he is a massive dent in the Raptors cap at the moment ($21.2m), and has been underperforming, yet still boasts reasonable value to contenders in search of depth and experience.
Decisions would then have to be made on the likes of Pascal Siakam (28-years-old, $35.4m), O.G. Anunoby (25-years-old, $17.3m), and Gary Trent Jr. (24-years-old, $17.5m). All of which could arguably play a role in a future Raptors team, following a brief rebuild. But, all of which hold tremendous value and could call for significant return in the form of draft picks and/or young studs.
If the Dinos do opt to trade some of their starters, you can expect that projected 7th-overall draft pick to rise in the lottery. Winning the lottery this year is truly winning the lottery, with the prize being 7 ft 2 inch, 19-year-old French power forward, Victor Wembanyama. He would look, let’s just say pretty good next to Scottie.
A full on tank would include the trashing of bad contracts including Chris Boucher’s $12.69m, who’s locked in through the 2024-2025 season as it stands, and the partially guaranteed 2023-2024 $8m for Thad Young. Now I know you could argue that’s not a bad contract, but if you’re tanking, trade Thad Young. Khem Birch and Otto Porter Jr., would likely find themselves on the chopping block as well, receiving $6.67m and $6m respectively.
Trashing or trading Malachi Flynn ($2.15m), and Juancho Hernangomez ($1.84m) on top of those mentioned above would leave the Raptors with 21-year-old Scottie Barnes, 22-year-old Christian Koloko, and 23-year-old Dalano Banton to form the foundation of a new, young tanking/rebuilding core. Allowing the space to both hopefully draft high, and negotiate with young stars around the league, preferably Canadians like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jamal Murray, RJ Barrett, and Nickeil Alexander-Walker.
Option C: Stay Quiet and Trust the Process
Please no, Masai and Bobby, I beg of you.
The Verdict
It likely has to be some variation of Option B. The Raptors are not really in position to start chatting about winning any playoff series’ with the way they have performed offensively this season. Aside from that, the cap situation makes it a little bit difficult to maneuver quality pieces that would be necessary in adding to solidify this team as a playoff contender. Tac on the upcoming player options for Fred, Gary, and Otto this summer, then O.G.’s player option next summer, who knows what the roster could look like in two years if we go all-in, and that is an unsettling feeling.
Option B offers the flexibility of Masai Ujiri and Bobby Webster’s better judgement to decide both immediate and longterm value, player by player.
(Photo credit: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports)
Simply wish to say your article is as astonishing. The clarity in your post is simply great, and I could assume you are an expert on this subject. Well with your permission let me grab your RSS feed to keep updated with forthcoming post. Thanks a million and please keep up the gratifying work.