As we head into April and the NBA season comes down to the final stretch, the Most Valuable Player (MVP) race has intensified, with Nikola Jokic of the Denver Nuggets and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander of the Oklahoma City Thunder emerging as leading contenders. Gilgeous-Alexander appears to be running away with the award, as nearly every betting platform is listing him as the heavy favorite to receive the first MVP award of his career. However, while both players have delivered exceptional performances and undeniable success, Jokic is the most valuable player in the league, and it’s not close.
Nikola Jokic’s Alien-Like Numbers
First and foremost, Jokic is averaging a triple-double this season, with 29.8 points, 12.8 rebounds, and 10.2 assists per game over 66 games (as of April 6, 2025). Keep in mind, Jokic is putting up these numbers with levels of efficiency not seen from No. 1 options anywhere else in the league, with a field goal percentage of 57.8% (8th in the league) and a three-point percentage of 42% (14th in the league). His win probability difference when he is on versus off the floor is an astounding 16.61%, the highest in the league. It is also to be noted that the net win probability added for the Nuggets without the Serbian on the floor is -3.85, while the Thunder without Gilgeous-Alexander put up a much more respectable +3.18.
Comparing Jokic and Gilgeous-Alexander
A base-level comparison of the two stars’ numbers likely leads to a coin toss for an average fan trying to find the true MVP, but a closer look at Jokic’s efficiency numbers proves no comparison to those of Gilgeous-Alexander. On around two fewer shot attempts and three fewer free throw attempts than Gilgeous-Alexander per night, Jokic’s near 30-point average looks even better next to Gilgeous-Alexander’s 32. Add in his TS% (True-Shooting percentage) of 66.0, elite play-making ability (10.3 APG vs. 6.3 for Gilgeous-Alexander), and far superior rebounding value (12.8 vs. 5.1), Jokic’s value on the floor is undeniably greater than that of Gilgeous-Alexander’s.
Jokic is Serbian Greatness
While Gilgeous-Alexander’s reputation as a foul-baiting ball hog is certainly undeserved, the production that the Nuggets are lucky enough to find in their star finds no match. Jokic is having arguably his best year yet as a pro, which is incredible for someone who was already named MVP three times and was the Finals MVP in 2023 when the Nuggets defeated the Miami Heat in the NBA Finals. As the 2025 season nears its end, the league will likely hand the award to Gilgeous-Alexander, and if they do, it will fall nothing short of one of the biggest award robberies in recent NBA history.