With 75% of the league golfing, this weekend the top-8 NFL teams duke it out. Debatably, 6 teams have a reasonably considerable shot at hoisting the Lombardi on February 12th, at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona.
Here’s how bet365 stack up the final 8:
- Kansas City Chiefs +300
- Buffalo Bills +325
- San Fransisco 49ers +450
- Philadelphia Eagles +500
- Cincinnati Bengals +800
- Dallas Cowboys +900
- New York Giants +2800
- Jacksonville Jaguars +3300
Giants and Jags’ fans won’t agree with bet365 or I but they’re both ideal first round matchups for the Eagles and Chiefs respectably, who are both expecting further glory and will be tough to beat in the playoffs on the road.
Saturday, January 21st
Jacksonville Jaguars (10-8) @ Kansas City Chiefs (14-3), 4:30 pm EST.
Kansas City enters the divisional round -450 to win and advance, hosting the Jaguars at Arrowhead Stadium and look to extend their win streak to 6 games and 8 on home soil. Despite that, the Jaguars are on a 6-game win streak of their own, 7-2 in their last 9 meetings.
+375 MVP favourite (bet365) Patrick Mahomes and +2500 MVP long shot Travis Kelce have been unstoppable this season, Mahomes led the NFL with 5,250 passing yards, Kelce 3rd in receptions with 110, 1st among tight ends.
While the Jaguars defence is nothing to laugh at, ranked 12th in the NFL in total points allowed (Bills and Bengals 2nd and 5th respectively played just 16 games). They struggled considerably defending the pass, allowing the 5th most passing yards in the league, 238.5 per game, and have in fact allowed the 9th most total yards of any NFL team this year with 6,006. Signifying that if the Chiefs are able to convert in the red zone, they should have no problem covering the -8.5 spread considering they led the league with 413.6 yards per game and 29.2 points per game.
In Week 10 the Chiefs beat the Jaguars 27-17 at home, the 2nd of their current 5-game win streak at Arrowhead. At the time the Jaguars were just 3-7, 1-4 on the road, and playing a Chiefs team that was 7-2 and 4-1 at home. Mahomes threw for 331 yards on 26/35 attempts including 81 yards to Kelce with 4 passing touchdowns (1 to Kelce) and an interception. Meanwhile Trevor Lawrence managed 259 yards on 29/40 with 2 passing touchdowns. Kansas City went up 20-0, but Trevor Lawrence found Christian Kirk in the end zone with just 11 seconds to play before the half and a Riley Patterson extra point made it 20-7. The Jags won the second half 10-7, but it wasn’t enough as Christian Kirk’s second receiving touchdown made it 27-17, and was the lone tally of the 4th quarter.
Picks:
- Kansas City Chiefs ML (-450)
- Kansas City Chiefs -8.5 (-110)
- Points Total Under 52.5 (-110)
- Travis Kelce Anytime Touchdown Scorer (-138)
- Patrick Mahomes Passing Yards Over 314.5 (-110)
New York Giants (10-7-1) @ Philadelphia Eagles (14-3), 8:15 pm EST.
The Birds defend the Linc against the Giants for the second straight game on Saturday night with -365 odds. The Eagles shut the Giants out for almost 3 full quarters of Week 18, having been up 19-0 prior to the Giants’ field goal with 50 seconds left in the 3rd making it 19-3. New York scored two touchdowns for 14 points in the 4th quarter, while the Eagles only managed one field goal for 3, ending the game holding on to a win by a possession, 22-16. In their only other matchup of the season in Week 14 the Eagles handled business 48-22 on the road in New Jersey.
The Giants have partnered an average offence with a subpar defence and are boasted into playoff position by their 6-1 start to the regular season and a great Wild Card round from Daniel Jones. The Giants’ defence ranks 18th in yards allowed per game and total, and 8th most in points allowed per game and total. A huge problem for New York seeing as their division rival opponents were 3rd in the NFL in yards per game with 389.1, and 3rd in points per gam with 28.1.
To add insult to injury the Philadelphia defence is no weaker than their point-getters, ranking 2nd in yards allowed with only 301.5 per game. One glaring problem for the Birds is Saquon Barkley and the Giants’ rushing game which managed 4th in the league in yards per game. The Eagles’ run defence hasn’t struggled per say at 17th in the league in rushing yards allowed per game with 121.6, around league average. The Philly rush defence has been protected heavily by their league-best pass defence, including ridiculous secondary tandem Darius Slay and C.J. Gardner-Johnson.
Expect the Giants to keep it on the ground as often as possible and out of the hands of 24-year-old quarterback Daniel Jones, considering the Eagles recorded a league high 70 sacks, 15 more than the Chiefs who came 2nd with 55 and a 4th best 17 interceptions, while the Giants allowed the 5th most sacks on their quarterback with 49, and had the least interceptions thrown with just 7 (tuck and hide, Daniel Jones?).
Picks:
- Philadelphia Eagles ML (-365)
- Points Total Over 48 (-110)
- Jalen Hurts Anytime Touchdown Scorer (-110)
- Saquon Barkley Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+100)
- Saquon Barkley Over 24.5 Receiving Yards (-120)
- A.J. Brown Over 71.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
- Saquon Barkley Over 70.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
Sunday, January 22nd
Cincinnati Bengals (13-4) @ Buffalo Bills (14-3), 3:00 pm EST.
Despite some recent sloppy play from Buffalo saviour Josh Allen sliding him down the MVP ladder to +500, the Buffalo Bills have managed an 8-game win streak and haven’t lost since November 13th, where Josh Allen’s two interceptions and fumble cost the Bills in a 33-30 overtime loss to the Vikings. Allen led the NFL with 19 turnovers in the 2022 season.
The Cincinnati Bengals on the other hand are on a 9-game win streak and haven’t lost since October 10th, where they fell 32-13 to the Browns. Prior to that their only loss since September 18th was a 19-17 clash with the Ravens, where they lost on a Justin Tucker 43-yard field goal that saw the time expire.
In a rematch of a highly heralded Week 17 game that was cancelled in response to the horrifying and life threatening on-field situation regarding Demar Hamlin early on in the 1st quarter, Hamlin’s Bills are favoured -240 moneyline and -5.5 point spread.
Buffalo’s average secondary (15th in passing yards per game) has been exposed by good receiving cores time and time again this season but have been saved by their potent offence and dominance stopping the run, as was the case against Miami last week where Miami’s wideouts Tyreek Hill, Jalen Waddle and Salvon Ahmed were able to combine for 158 yards receiving but allowed only 42 yards on the ground.
Picks:
- Cincinnati Bengals +5.5 Point Spread (-110)
- Points Total Over 48 (-110)
- Joe Burrow Over 277.5 Passing Yards (-110)
- Josh Allen Over 269.5 Passing Yards (-110)
Dallas Cowboys (13-5) @ San Fransisco 49ers (14-4), 6:30 pm EST.
The primetime Sunday Night Football matchup not only has America’s team in it (obviously), but it is the tightest spread of the weekend at just 4 points in favour of the 49ers.
The San Fransisco 49ers, who enter the game -195 moneyline, have been on an absolute tirade since their 3-4 start, winning 11 straight in fairly dominant fashion.
The Cowboys have been on a slightly rockier trail in recent weeks, losing 2 of their last 4 games of the regular season, 40-34 against the Jaguars before beating the Jalen-less Eagles and the 7-9 Titans, then dropping an awful showing against the Commanders, 26-6 in Week 18. Yet the Boys managed to shut down the run and hold off Brady’s Buccaneers 31-14 in the Wild Card round to secure their matchup with San Fran, who had no problem with the Seahawks in the Wild Card, winning 41-23.
It’s worth noting, the 49ers have by far the best defence in the NFL at the moment, allowing just 16.3 points per game, that’s just 277 points all year. The next lowest allowed is by the Buffalo Bills with 286, and they only played 16 regular season games. The run game will be hard to come by for Dallas, seeing as the Niners’ defence is piggy backed by a 2nd ranked run defence. Difficult for Cowboys’ offensive coordinator and play caller Kellen Moore, considering the tandem run duo of Tony Pollard and Ezekiel Elliot have been their bread and butter on offence.
The other problem for the Cowboys and their 22nd ranked rush defence will be newly acquired 49ers’ running back Christian McCaffrey, who has excelled the Niners to new heights since his arrival just before the trade deadline. Look for McCaffrey to cause tremendous headaches for the Cowboys’ as the Niners will likely keep the ball out of the air as often as possible against Dallas’ 8th ranked pass defence.
Picks:
- San Fransisco 49ers Spread -4 (-110)
- Christian McCaffrey Anytime Touchdown Scorer (-163)
- Christian McCaffrey Multi Touchdown Scorer +2 or More (+250)
- Ezekiel Elliot Under 34.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
- Tony Pollard Under 46.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
- Christian McCaffrey Over 64.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
- Christian McCaffrey Over 35.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
(Photo Credit: AP Photo/Colin E. Braley)
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