The Blue Jays have work to do to be ready for opening day 2024. Considering the rotation, the 1-4 spots appear to be a lock. Kevin Gausman, Jose Berrios, Chris Bassitt and Yusei Kikuchi are all under contract for 2024 or beyond. Luckily they all performed very well in 2023. Jays management, and fans, can only hope that their performance in 2024 is comparable.
The fifth starter’s spot is another story. A year ago, Alek Manoah was considered a front of the rotation starter. Now his future is very much up in the air. The Jays finished last season with Hyun-Jin Ryu as their 5th starter. He is free agent eligible – should the Jays try to re-sign him?
Is the 5th starter spot important?
Some people argue the 5th starter spot should be a low priority. One argument I have heard is that in the playoffs, teams usually use a 3 or 4 man rotation, so the 5th starter isn’t that important. I disagree.
The 5th starter might not be needed once a team gets to the playoffs, but having someone who isn’t almost an automatic loss during the regular season can definitely help a team get in to the playoffs. As one example, think back to the 2022 regular season. In games that were started by Alek Manoah, Kevin Gausman, Ross Stripling or Jose Berrios, the Jays had an impressive record of 76-42. In the other 44 games (which were started by mostly Yusei Kikuchi or Mitch White) they posted an abysmal 16-28 record, a .364 winning percentage.
For contending teams, it helps if your 5th starter is at least good enough to keep the team in the game most of the time, otherwise it puts a lot of pressure on the rest of the team to be almost perfect.
Why Focus on Internal Candidates?
The Jays could always look elsewhere for rotation help. There are free agents as well as trade candidates. They should have money to spend, with approximately $64 due to come off the books this off season (including Whit Merrifield who has a mutual option I’m assuming will be declined as well as retained salary for Randal Grichuk and Anthony Bass). However some of that money will be used on raises for arbitration eligible players. Also, the Jays do have other needs. Their biggest priority this off season needs to be upgrading the offence. So if they can find a suitable candidate for the rotation in house, a majority of their free agent money or trade chips can be used elsewhere.
The Candidates
Hyun-Jin Ryu
Ryu is still a Blue Jay until free agency officially begins. At age 36, it’s pretty safe to assume his next contract will be for considerably less than the 4/$80 million the Jays paid for him four years ago. He has enjoyed considerable success in baseball. However, at his age, with the innings he has logged and coming off of Tommy John surgery, his best days do appear to be behind him.
He pitched in 11 games for the Jays in 2023. While he had a very fine 2.25 era in five August starts, it ballooned up to 4.50 in six September starts. A lot will depend on what Ryu is looking for in terms of both money and term. I’m thinking the Jays might have better options available to them.
Alek Manoah
What a roller coaster ride it has been for the 25 year old RHP over the last 3 seasons. He was good in 2021, great in 2022 (an all star and AL Cy Young award finalist). Then for whatever reason or combination of reasons, he came crashing back to earth in 2023. When his season ended, he had started 19 games for the Jays with a 5.87 era.
Here is the thing where Manoah is concerned. He would hardly be the first MLB player to have success, then struggle, and find a path back to success. A big concern with him has to be his relationship with team management. Manoah was demoted to the minor leagues twice in 2023. The second time, apparently, he took considerably longer than the usual time given to report to AAA Buffalo. He didn’t pitch and official reasons why were kept quieter than state secrets. Eventually he was placed on the restricted list – the Bisons needed his roster spot since he wasn’t pitching, and his season ended without him throwing another pitch in a professional game. There were also reports that Manoah and his representation were unhappy with their handling of him, accusing them of manipulating his service time. I don’t really understand why this is even a thought. Manipulating service time is keeping a player who is deserving of being in MLB in terms of his performance, down in the minor leagues. Is it realistic to say that about Manoah in 2023? You be the judge.
In any event, it seems like the relationship between Manoah and team management is fractured. What remains to be seen is if it can be repaired or not. It would be in the best interests of the team, in terms of on field performance, if he could bounce back and pitch anything like 2022 Manoah, or even 2021 Manoah. That should give the Jays a rotation few other teams could match. But after everything that happened in 2023, Jays’ management might not want to keep him around. If they did try to trade him, they likely wouldn’t get anywhere near what his true market value could turn out to be. You would have to think that with four years of team control remaining that at least one or two contending teams should be willing to pay a decent return in terms of players/prospects to acquire him.
Mitch White
I have to say I was more than a little bit surprised when White cleared waivers during the 2023 season. I understand he was underwhelming to say the least in 10 appearances with the Jays in 2023 and even his AAA numbers (mid-season) left much to be desired. Still he was only a year removed from a pretty respectable 3.70 era in 15 games with the Dodgers in 2022 prior to being traded. I get why contending teams didn’t want to take a chance on him but I thought for sure a rebuilding team would see if they could “fix him”.
Nobody did and he remained in the Jays system as a non roster player. After pitching in his final MLB game of 2023 on July 25th, White finished the season pitching in 9 games with the AAA Buffalo Bisons. His 4.91 era in five games in August was unimpressive. But just maybe he turned a corner in September. In 4 games he had a very fine era of 1.69. In 21.1 innings in September he had an opponents’ batting average of .160, WHIP of 0.98 and 30 strikeouts.
Assuming White isn’t moved in an off season trade, he could fill the roll of swing man with the Jays, assuming that any of that late season success at AAA can be sustained vs major league hitting.
Bowden Francis
27 year old Francis was acquired by the Jays along with Trevor Richards on July 6, 2021 for Rowdy Tellez. Since then, Francis has done everything the Jays have asked of him, and done so quite well. He made his MLB debut in 2022, pitching in one game for the Jays. 2023 was a different story. As an effective pitcher with options, Francis pitched in 20 games in the majors as well as 10 games in the minors.
His 1.73 era with the Jays was very good as was his walk rate of 2.0/9 innings pitched. His strikeouts per 9 innings of 8.7 is respectable, enough to earn him a long look as either a 5th starter or permanent fixture in the major league bullpen.
Ricky Tiedemann
The Blue Jays top prospect certainly has many people excited. Tiedemann is currently ranked 31st on MLB’s top 100 prospects list. Per scouting grades, he has three above average pitches – fastball 65, slider 55 and changeup 70 (a grade of 50 is considered average). His walk rate of 4.7 across four minor league teams in 2023 and in 4 games in the Arizona Fall league is a concern; however his double digit strikeout rate at every level he has pitched is an indication of a high ceiling (14.6 across two minor league seasons, 11.5 in the AFL).
Tiedemann appeared to be on the fast track to the majors in 2023, unfortunately injuries limited his action to 44 innings in 15 games in the regular season. This might have been one reason he saw some action in the AFL, to get him some needed work. As the Jays’ current rotation ages and one by one hits free agency, it will be interesting to see what role Tiedemann can fill for the Jays long term.
Prediction:
Ryu will leave the Jays as a free agent. Manoah will be traded for as much as the Jays can get for him.
White, Francis and Tiedemann will all log significant innings with the Jays in 2024. By the end of the season, Tiedemann will be a fixture in the Blue Jays rotation.
(photo via BlueJays/X)