With the regular MLB season just days away, what can Jays fans realistically expect from this team?
The exhibition season has come to a close. Meaningful, regular season baseball is on deck. Many of us Jays fans have been waiting for this since the latest early exit from the playoffs was complete on October 4, 2023. We all know the drill. This team has made the playoffs in 3 of the last 4 seasons from 2020-2023 (missing out by one game in 2021), however success in the playoffs has eluded them.
There are of course exceptions to this but if you want to summarize the 2023 Jays season, when they succeeded it was with excellent pitching and defence, and just enough timely hitting to support it. When they failed it was because they couldn’t put enough runs up on the board. If they were to move forward, it seemed like their biggest need was to boost the offence.
This was never going to be an easy task – for one thing this season’s free agent class wasn’t particularly deep. Still many Jays fans hoped that they would make a much bigger splash than they ultimately did. It made big news when it was reported that Shohei Ohtani had chosen to sign with the Jays, only for that to prove untrue and Ohtani signed with the LA Dodgers. There were other players available. Juan Soto was traded from the Padres to the Yankees. Cody Bellinger re-signed with the Cubs. JD Martinez (who I wrote about earlier in the off season) recently signed with the Mets.
It’s not that the Jays made zero moves. They exercised an option on RHP Chad Green. They re-signed CF Kevin Kiermaier. They signed free agent DH Justin Turner, INF Isiah Kiner-Falefa and pitcher Yariel Rodriguez. They also signed Eduardo Escobar and Daniel Vogelbach to minor league deals (Escobar has since been released, Vogelbach has made the team) It’s just that, to me anyway, these seemed more like complimentary moves rather than the “big splash” I believed that they needed.
For anyone who knows anything about me in terms of my Blue Jays fandom, I consider myself someone who normally leans toward optimistic views of the team, any time I consider optimism to be realistic. However there is no point convincing myself that we are looking at a championship team when it’s obvious they are still far away from that (such as in 2019 which was widely acknowledged to be a rebuilding season). It really pains me to say that for most of this off season, I didn’t give the Jays much chance to accomplish anything this season.
Then spring training happened.
Let me preface my analysis by stating what anyone who knows anything about MLB already knows very well. Spring training results don’t count, and shouldn’t be considered a reliable predictor of anything once the opening day bell sounds. There are a number of reasons for this. Spring training isn’t just for major league players, but a number of minor league players get game time also. Let’s say a player has a very good spring – it’s very hard to break down whether that happened against legitimate major league competition or minor league players, some of which might never make it to the big leagues, never mind have any kind of success there. Also, for veteran players who know that they will be on the team as long as they are healthy, they don’t necessarily put their best foot forward in the spring. It’s a long season and spring training can be used to ramp up gradually, or to experiment with things like a new pitch.
Spring training results for players with something to play for can be something to pay attention to, however. Bowden Francis‘ 3.38 era and Ernie Clement‘s 1.026 OPS in Grapefruit league action may have contributed to them breaking camp with the Jays.
At the very least, however, it isn’t a bad thing when a player or players have a good spring training. If they don’t, it’s not necessarily time to press the panic button but it could be something to keep an eye on. So with those caveats in mind, let’s take a look at the Jays in spring training.
The Hitting
The Blue Jays finished the spring with a team OPS of .804, 5th best in MLB and 2nd best in the AL to the Seattle Mariners. Several Jays regulars looked very good, led by Vladimir Guerrero Jr.at 1.218. Personally I never believed that George Springer (1.217) or Alejandro Kirk (1.074) were washed up, though a number of people I talk to did. Even players who are more known for their defence such as Kiner-Falefa (.919) and Kiermaier (.858) hit well enough to open some eyes. Bo Bichette (.850) was solid as usual, Dalton Varsho seems to be benefitting from a new approach at the plate (.788).
One thing that struck me in watching games at spring training for a week was a very patient approach they have as a team. They are willing to take a walk if pitchers aren’t throwing strikes, and “pass the baton” to the next guy. For me, an approach like this can lead to more team victories.
The addition of future hall of famer Joey Votto to the organization is intriguing. The 40 year old Canadian has a career .920 OPS. His last two seasons were down seasons, although injuries were probably a factor in his sub-par performances. The question is how much does he have left in the tank? Fortunately Votto stated that he is willing to start the season in the minors and that was before a rolled ankle limited him to one spring training AB (which was a home run off of Zack Wheeler). It would be a feel good story for many Jays fans if Votto could be anything close to his old self and help the Jays win, maybe even help them get past the hump of not winning (at all) in the playoffs. But that has yet to be seen.
For now, we need to hope that the Jays as a team stay hot at the plate when games start to count.
The Pitching
Pitching was a major strength for the Jays in 2023 and they retained most of their hurlers from a year ago except for Hyun-Jin Ryu and Jordan Hicks. So it figures to be a strength for them again, right?
Well not so fast.
The “fab four” of the 2023 Jays rotation (Gausman, Berrios, Bassitt and Kikuchi) as well as a number of their more effective relief pitchers threw several innings last season and they are all veteran hurlers. At some point, it is inevitable that this will catch up with pitchers, either as injuries or just reduced effectiveness. Can they hold off the inevitable for at least one more season?
Well, the results this spring were mixed to say the least. The team era was 5.01, 24th out of 30 MLB teams.
On the positive side, Jose Berrios had a very strong spring with a 1.38 era. He very much earned the start on opening day. Our first look at Yariel Rodriguez was promising, 1.80 era in two appearances after battling injuries for much of spring training. Kevin Gausman‘s lone spring appearance was on the last day, giving up one run in 3 innings and striking out 7. For Gausman, the concern is his health rather than performance. Will he get through the season without the issues that sidelined him for most of the spring?
One can only hope that Yusei Kikuchi has been “working on things” during the spring, otherwise his 16.43 spring era would be a major concern. Less surprising but still very frustrating was Alek Manoah‘s performance. His one spring outing was a disaster, he lasted 1.2 innings and pitched to a 21.60 era. If Manoah will ever bounce back and be anything close to 2021/2022 Manoah, it will take a lot longer apparently.
It has been a while since the Jays had a pitching prospect with the raw stuff of Ricky Tiedemann. The velocity, the strikeout potential and from a LHP is certainly tantalizing. His 5.40 era suggests to me that he needs more time in AAA to learn how to consistently get batter out. I’m hoping the club will see this the same way.
Losing Jordan Hicks to free agency was disappointing if not unexpected. On paper, it appeared as though the Jays had built a good bullpen and could withstand the loss. However, the news that both closer Jordan Romano and leverage reliever Erik Swanson are likely to start the season on the IL is a big concern. If they are lost for any length of time, it could be difficult to find pitchers to fill in effectively.
In a nutshell,
The Jays need to hit much better than they did last year, and pitch and play defence as well as they did last year (or as close to that as possible) in order to achieve anything this season. From what I have seen, I give them a fighting chance. They don’t have much room for error, several things need to go right for them to succeed.
Let’s hope this is the season it all works out for the Blue Jays.