The Blue Jays were previously linked to the two biggest name players that were available this off season. Two way superstar Shohei Ohtani was a free agent. Slugging outfielder Juan Soto was apparently available in a trade with the San Diego Padres. At one point a few days ago, reports surfaced that the Jays were about to sign Ohtani. Sadly those turned out to be false. Ohtani is reportedly signing a long term deal with the LA Dodgers (as I predicted in an article roughly a month ago) while Soto has been traded to the New York Yankees.
The let down for Jays fans is understandable. Thinking you have a good chance at one of two established stars only to strike out on both is deflating. Some Jays fans have even gone so far as to declare the off season a failure.
Nothing could be further from the truth.
While the two biggest name players may no longer be available, there are still a number of quality established MLB players the Jays could potentially acquire to help them improve in 2024.
In order to be seriously considered by Ohtani and his representatives, they needed to offer a very large sum of money. (While unconfirmed, their offer to him is rumoured to have been $595 million). It is also believed that Rogers’ approval for that unprecedented sum was specific to Ohtani and the marketing opportunities that come with signing him. Still, the Jays are in a position to spend a significant amount on the right player or players.
Think of the Jays current situation as “destination A” and where they want to be (a team that has success in the playoffs) as “destination B”. Like most endeavours to get from point A to point B, there is more than one route you can take. With Ohtani and Soto off the board, here is a 4 step “alternate route” that the Jays could take.
1. Sign OF Cody Bellinger to a long term contract
In each of the last four off seasons, the Jays signed an established free agent to a multi year deal (Hyun-Jin Ryu in 2019-2020, George Springer in 2020-2021, Kevin Gausman in 2021-2022 and Chris Bassitt in 2022-2023). With over $60 million having come off their books after the 2023 season, they are poised to do so again.
33 year old Kevin Kiermaier is a free agent and while he performed admirably in a Jays uniform, he is apparently looking to sign with a team that plays its home games on natural grass in an effort to preserve his surgically repaired hip.
27 year old Bellinger is a free agent and he checks a number of boxes for Toronto. He is a left handed hitter with a career .829 OPS in 7 major league seasons. He was with the Dodgers from 2017-2022 and after back to back sub par seasons in 2021-2022, the Dodgers non-tendered him. He went on to sign a one year deal with the Chicago Cubs and succeeded in re-establishing his value. His .881 OPS in 2023 was 12th best in all of MLB.
Bellinger has played all 3 outfield positions, though he has spent the most time in CF by far. He has logged 461 games in CF, 133 in RF and 40 in LF. He also has 321 games at 1B.
In terms of contract projections, Bellinger is projected to receive somewhere between $150-$200 million over several seasons, possibly as many as 8. With a good amount of financial flexibility, the Jays should be able to afford this if the opportunity is available.
I don’t know about any other Jays fan but after the Ohtani fiasco, I’m not going to get too excited about Bellinger’s girlfriend posting a picture of Toronto’s CN Tower on her Instagram account. But if/when a deal between the Jays and Bellinger is announced, it could fill a big need for them.
2. Sign slugging DH JD Martinez to a one year deal (or 1 plus an option year)
Martinez spent the 2023 season as DH for the Dodgers. Now that it appears that position will be filled by Ohtani, he needs a new team to play for. Although he is 35 years old, he continues to be one of the better hitters in the game. He is the owner of a career .874 OPS which he surpassed in 2023 (.893).
Martinez’ age and the fact that he is almost exclusively a DH at this point in his career will mean that teams interested in his services shouldn’t have to pay top free agent money. Still, he won’t be dirt cheap either. His 2023 contract was 1 year, $10 million – just slightly more than the Jays paid each of Kiermaier and Brandon Belt in 2023. He should be able to fill the vacancy created by Belt’s free agency (and possible retirement) while adding some much needed pop to Toronto’s line up.
3. Trade for 3B Alex Bregman
This could end up being more of a wish list item than something that actually materializes. Free agent Matt Chapman won another gold glove in 2023. However his .659 OPS from May 1 through the end of the season (after winning AL player of the month in April) left much to be desired. Bregman is a different type of player. He is a much better hitter, with a career .861 OPS. He is also a capable defender at 3B – not the slick fielder that Chapman is but few third baseman are.
29 year old Bregman is a year away from being free agent eligible. It was rumoured that the Astros could be looking to trade him and get something for him rather than risk losing him in a year. More recently, Astros GM Dana Brown said they are not interested in trading him.
That could be true, and if so, the right trade offer might persuade him to change his mind. Or it could just be posturing, to try to get the best possible offers for him off the bat.
The Astros have had an impressive competitive window. From 2017-2022 (excluding the COVID shortened 60 game season in 2020) they won the AL West division each year, with 100 + regular season wins in all but one of those division winning seasons, also winning the World Series in 2017 and 2022. They also won the AL West in 2023; however their 90-72 regular season record was the same as that of the eventual champion Texas Rangers. The Astros only won the division due to a tiebreaker. With the success of the Rangers as well as the very competitive Seattle Mariners, the Astros could finally be on the down side of their competitive window.
The Astros’ farm system is ranked at or near the bottom of MLB, depending whose rankings you pay attention to. Both Bregman and teammate Jose Altuve are free agent eligible after the 2024 season. Rumour has it that the team might prefer to retain Altuve and build around him, whereas they might see Bregman as too expensive to retain.
So maybe they could be persuaded to trade him away? What about a package of LHP prospect Brandon Barriera and LHH infield prospect Addison Barger for Bregman and cash to cover part of Bregman’s $28.5 million salary (say $10 million). Barriera and Barger are currently 4th and 5th on the Jays top 30 prospect list, respectively. Barger has played all over the diamond in his MiLB career (1B, 2B, 3B and SS) as well as RF. He could be a candidate to replace Bregman at 3B. If that proposed trade isn’t enough to get the Stros to seal the deal, the Jays could pivot and offer infield prospect Orelvis Martinez instead. Personally I hope the Jays can hold on to Martinez.
4. Extend C Danny Jansen
28 year old Jansen is one of the streakier hitters in baseball and has spent his share of time on the IL. When he gets hot, his bat can carry the team. Jansen is known as a skilled handler of the pitching staff. He contributes on both sides of the ball (his 2023 Off rating per Fangraphs was 6.4, Def rating 3.4 and he was good for 2.0 fWAR in spite of playing in only 86 games).
A year ago at this time, the Jays had a surplus at catcher. Having Jansen and 2022 all star Alejandro Kirk allowed them to trade away their top prospect at the time Gabriel Moreno. Now Jansen is a year away from free agency. The Jays should make every reasonable effort to extend his services.
I didn’t make any suggestion regarding possible pitching upgrades. Looking up and down the roster, it is my belief that if the Jays do not acquire any external pitching, the pitching they have should be sufficient. Their 1-4 in the rotation is pretty much set (barring injuries) – Kevin Gausman, Jose Berrios, Chris Bassitt and Yusei Kikuchi. For the 5th spot as well as minor league depth they have Alek Manoah, Mitch White, Bowden Francis and Ricky Tiedemann. For the bullpen they have Jordan Romano, Chad Green, Erik Swanson, Trevor Richards, Yimi Garcia, Tim Mayza and Genesis Cabrera for their top 7 spots. Candidates for the final spot as well as minor league depth include Mitch White, Bowden Francis, Hagen Danner, Nate Pearson and Zach Pop.
With the above moves and likely departure of Whit Merrifield via free agency, internal candidates for 2B include Cavan Biggio, Santiago Espinal, Davis Schneider and either Addison Barger or Orelvis Martinez (assuming that one but not both of them are traded).
Summary
It would have been great for the Jays to land a superstar player like Ohtani but it wasn’t in the cards. Had they done so, we don’t know how much money would have been left available to the Jays to upgrade other areas of need. The above is just one example of a plan B that in terms of team success might work just as well or possibly better. After all, Ohtani can only bat once for every nine plate appearances his team makes.
Here is hoping the Jays announce some impact moves, sooner than later. The clock is ticking on the offseason.