ESPN created the Football Power Index as an all-encompassing measurement of NFL team performance. FPI is meant to predict a team’s continuous performance for the remainder of a season.
“FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule. Ratings and projections update daily.” via ESPN.
| Rank | Team | FPI | W-L-T | Trend | OFF | DEF | ST | SOS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Buffalo Bills | 9.7 | 3-2-0 | — | 6.9 | .3 | 0.5 | 19 |
| 2 | San Francisco 49ers | 9.1 | 5-0-0 | +1 | 6.9 | 2.3 | -0.1 | 32 |
| 3 | Kansas City Chiefs | 8.0 | 4-1-0 | +1 | 6.4 | 1.6 | -0.0 | 10 |
| 4 | Miami Dolphins | 7.7 | 4-1-0 | -2 | 8.5 | -0.5 | -0.2 | 13 |
| 5 | Dallas Cowboys | 4.8 | 3-2-0 | — | 1.8 | 3.0 | -0.0 | 27 |
| 6 | Baltimore Ravens | 4.7 | 3-2-0 | — | 0.1 | 4.3 | 0.3 | 26 |
| 7 | Philadelphia Eagles | 4.3 | 5-0-0 | — | 4.6 | -0.6 | 0.3 | 24 |
| 8 | Los Angeles Chargers | 3.8 | 2-2-0 | — | 5.1 | -1.2 | -0.1 | 14 |
| 9 | Detroit Lions | 2.7 | 4-1-0 | — | 2.8 | -0.4 | 0.4 | 25 |
| 10 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 1.6 | 3-2-0 | +3 | -0.2 | 1.8 | -0.0 | 5 |
| 11 | Seattle Seahawks | 1.5 | 3-1-0 | -1 | 2.3 | -0.9 | -0.0 | 29 |
| 12 | Minnesota Vikings | 0.2 | 1-4-0 | -1 | 1.4 | -1.2 | 0.0 | 9 |
| 13 | Cleveland Browns | 0.1 | 2-2-0 | +1 | -3.2 | 3.3 | 0.0 | 21 |
| 14 | Los Angeles Rams | 0.0 | 2-3-0 | -2 | 1.9 | -1.8 | -0.1 | 2 |
| 15 | Cincinnati Bengals | -0.2 | 2-3-0 | — | -0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 17 |
| 16 | New Orleans Saints | -0.5 | 3-2-0 | +5 | -1.8 | 1.5 | -0.2 | 31 |
| 17 | Pittsburgh Steelers | -1.3 | 3-2-0 | +7 | -2.9 | 1.7 | -0.1 | 6 |
| 18 | New York Jets | -1.4 | 2-3-0 | -2 | -3.7 | 2.5 | -0.2 | 3 |
| 19 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | -1.5 | 3-1-0 | — | -2.1 | 0.9 | -0.3 | 18 |
| 20 | Tennessee Titans | -1.8 | 2-3-0 | -2 | -0.5 | -1.4 | 0.2 | 12 |
| 21 | Green Bay Packers | -1.9 | 2-3-0 | -4 | -1.9 | 0.2 | -0.2 | 23 |
| 22 | Atlanta Falcons | -2.0 | 3-2-0 | — | -2.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 30 |
| 23 | Houston Texans | -2.4 | 2-3-0 | — | -1.6 | -1.0 | 0.3 | 11 |
| 24 | Indianapolis Colts | -3.1 | 3-2-0 | +2 | -2.6 | -0.6 | 0.1 | 16 |
| 25 | Las Vegas Raiders | -3.8 | 2-3-0 | +2 | -1.3 | -2.6 | 0.0 | 8 |
| 26 | New England Patriots | -4.1 | 1-4-0 | -6 | -6.1 | 2.2 | -0.3 | 4 |
| 27 | Chicago Bears | -4.1 | 1-4-0 | +3 | -1.2 | -3.0 | 0.0 | 20 |
| 28 | Washington Commanders | -4.6 | 2-3-0 | -3 | -3.3 | -1.0 | -0.3 | 22 |
| 29 | Denver Broncos | -5.1 | 1-4-0 | -1 | -1.2 | -3.7 | -0.2 | 28 |
| 30 | Arizona Cardinals | -6.6 | 1-4-0 | -1 | -2.8 | -3.7 | -0.1 | 15 |
| 31 | New York Giants | -6.7 | 1-4-0 | — | -4.4 | -2.3 | 0.0 | 1 |
| 32 | Carolina Panthers | -6.9 | 0-5-0 | — | -4.7 | -2.2 | 0.0 | 7 |
Legend
FPI – Football Power Index; W-L-T – Win-Loss-Tie; FPI Rank Trend from Week 4; OFF – Offensive FPI; DEF – Defensive FPI; ST – Special Teams FPI; SOS – Strength of Schedule Ranking Weeks 1-5.
Bills Up Top?
There are some clear shocks on these rankings, especially that of the Bills topping the NFL in FPI. Though they are 4th in the NFL in touchdowns scored, and tied for 3rd in the NFL in touchdowns allowed. A formidable recipe for success. Their main hinderance has been their run-defence, where they rank 24th in the NFL in yards allowed on the ground. Their pass-defence on the other hand has held up, only allowing 956 yards in the air, good enough for 8th in the NFL.
It’s safe to say their spot atop these rankings are held in place due to the San Fransisco 49ers lack of competition through 5 games, having the easiest 1-5 schedule in the NFL. With that being said there’s a considerable argument that they are a top-3 NFL team.
Overrated Birds and Lions?
After a 5-0 start, Philly faithful are buzzing and seamlessly on their way to another deep playoff push. But according to the FPI rankings, the Eagles haven’t seen much considerable competition this year, and are not worthy of a top-6 NFL power ranking.
The Eagles’ backfield has struggled due to injury, but their run defence has carried them 5 weeks in a row. The fact that the Eagles are 5-0 is a testament to their depth and resilience. Their biggest test of the young season will come in Week 7, where they will collide with Mike McDaniels and the Miami Dolphins’ spread offence at Lincoln Financial.
The Birds’ offence has been dynamic despite its underperformance. Hurts has struggled up until Week 5 to get tight end Dallas Goedert involved in the offence, as well as finding a balance between superstar receivers AJ Brown and Devonta Smith. All of which are positives considering their undefeated record, and room to improve. With glimpses of greatness around the field, it’s only a matter of time before the Philly offence regroups and becomes a problem for their opposition once again.
Detroit fans have had a lot to cheer about for the first time in, well, a very long time. Coming into Week 6 at 4-1, they are tied for the 3rd best record in the NFL with the Chiefs and Dolphins, behind only the Eagles and 49ers, who both remain undefeated at 5-0.
The Lions have managed the 4th most yards offensively in the NFL through 5 weeks, meaning they have no trouble getting down field, a testament to their offensive balance between the pass and run game, where they rank near the top of the league in yards for both, 8th and 6th respectively.
In much of the same way that the Eagles are hindered in this calculation, the Lions are as well. Their early schedule weakness, and having considerably less opportunity to prove themselves compared to some teams who had statement wins, or overcame tough opposition, such as the Bills, Dolphins, Cowboys, and Ravens.
Ravens a Top-6 Team? Better Than the Eagles, Lions, Jags?
Ravens fans have not been impressed with their offence so far this season, specifically their struggling mobile quarterback, Lamar Jackson. Jackson has shown struggles putting the ball where he wants it in the air, but makes up for his occasional inaccuracy with his explosive scrambling style.
The Baltimore Ravens rank 4th in the NFL in rushing yards, 2nd in defensive yards allowed per game, and 3rd in defensive yards allowed behind two teams who have had a bye week already. Their defence is essentially second to one (Cleveland Browns). So what’s the issue in Baltimore? The passing game. The Ravens feature the 23rd best passing offence in the NFL through 5.
Lamar and the Ravens have a terrific all-around football team, but they’re going to need to prove they can move the ball more ways than one before any logical football fan would solidify them as a better team than the Eagles, no matter how fortuitous the defence is. The Lions and Jags on the other hand, you could have a serious debate, and only time will tell.
(Photo via Maddie Malhotra/Getty Images)