With the Toronto Blue Jays set to face the Tampa Bay Rays to begin the 2024 campaign, the level of pitching that Toronto will hit against is an important detail. Which pitchers will Toronto’s offence have to prepare for in this opening series? Tampa Bay Rays reporter Marc Topkin (@TBTimes_Rays on “X”) has some ideas on the starters that Toronto will have to face.
Game 1: Veteran SP Gets the Ball for Rays on Opening Day
SP Zach Eflin will get set to face the Toronto Blue Jays on Opening Day for the Tampa Bay Rays. Eflin was the only Rays pitcher to surpass 30 games started in 2023, while also recording at 3.50 ERA, 3.01 FIP, and a 9.42 K/9 (second-highest in career). The veteran starter’s Spring Training has been rather iffy. His strikeout rates have remained consistent (13 Ks in 11.2 IP), but he’s giving up a few too many home runs.
The main reason why Eflin is so difficult to face is due to his sinker and his ability to generate weak ground balls. In order to defeat Zach Eflin, Toronto’s offence will have to find holes with the ground balls that Eflin does force, while also pulling fly balls against his cutter (19 degree launch angle in 2023). If Toronto can accomplish these two things, they should be able to put Tampa Bay in the position to have their bullpen warm up rather early in the contest.
Game 2: Young Righty Aaron Civale Takes the Hill
Aaron Civale will be the starter for Tampa Bay in the second game, according to Marc Topkin. Civale had an effective season for the Rays in 2023, recording a 3.46 ERA, 3.57 FIP, and a career-best 0.88 HR/9. The young starter doesn’t light up the radar gun, nor does he strike many batters out, but he’s able to generate weak contact on a consistent basis. Civale’s main pitches are a cutter, curveball, and sinker. The curveball and sinker both had slugging percentages below .350 in 2023, while the cutter is a plus-pitch when it comes to vertical and horizontal movement.
Overall, the main way to beat Civale is by capitalizing on mistake pitches. As seen in the starter’s heat map, he tends to stay around the strike zone. If one of these pitches catches too much of the plate, the Blue Jays have to be ready to capitalize. Civale’s prone to giving up plenty of fly balls (39% fly ball% in 2023), so if he doesn’t throw a quality strike, the baseball could end up in the bleachers.
Via Fangraphs.com
Game 3: Zack Littell Finds Himself as SP3 to Begin Season
Zack Littell is to start game 3 for the Tampa Bay Rays against the Blue Jays. Littell ate a sizable 90 innings for Tampa Bay in 2023, being utilized as both a starter and long reliever. In those 90 innings, Littell recorded a 4.10 ERA, 4.02 FIP, and a 1.20 BB/9, a career-best for the right-hander. However, the versatile righty does have some issues with the long ball, having a 1.30 HR/9 in 2023.
Littell’s main pitches are the four-seam fastball, sinker slider, and splitter. He’ll utilize the sinker middle-away to righties and middle-in to lefties early in the count to steal an early called strike. The splitter is used below the strike zone as a putaway pitch, as seen by its 18.3 putaway% (second-highest amongst Littell’s pitches). The way to beat Littell is by catching his slider out over the plate. The slide piece had the highest slugging% against amongst the weapons in Littell’s repertoire.
As seen in his heat maps, Littell’s slider caught plenty of the plate. Catching one of these pitches over the plate could result in a dinger for the Toronto offence.
Via Fangraphs.com
Game 4: Toss Up Amongst Alexander, Waguespack, and Pepiot
Former Blue Jay Jacob Waguespack, Tyler Alexander, and newcomer Ryan Pepiot are expected to be the candidates for the SP4 spot.
Jacob Waguespack
In a recent Spring Training contest against the Boston Red Sox (March 9th), Waguespack pitched 3.0 innings, allowing no earned runs, 2 hits, and a walk while punching out 3 batters. The former Blue Jay had a blatant uptick in fastball velocity, increasing it from 92.5 MPH to a whopping 94.3 MPH in that Spring Training contest. Waguespack peaked at 96.4 MPH and generated 9 whiffs in his 3 innings of work.
Waguespack’s changeup was working up-and-in, down-and-away, and down-and-in to hitters. The versatility of the weapon was such that it allowed the pitch to have a 56% whiff%, a superb complementary pitch to his higher-velocity four-seam fastball.
Tyler Alexander
Tyler Alexander has been “Mr. Reliable” in Rays camp thus far, only giving up 2 earned runs in 9 innings in spring. In his longest outing of Spring Training, a 5-inning game against the Boston Red Sox, Alexander struck out 3 batters over 5.0 innings, while only yielding 1 earned run. The southpaw doesn’t light up the radar gun and he hasn’t had a quality track record. Alexander’s top 3 pitches of 2023 all yielded slugging percentages of .400 or more, an issue that might leave him out of Tampa Bay’s rotation for the entirety of 2024.
Ryan Pepiot
Ryan Pepiot is the final starter mentioned for the potential SP4 position by Marc Topkin. Pepiot was traded alongside OF Jonny Deluca for RHP Tyler Glasnow and OF Manuel Margot. Pepiot has a career 9.19 K/9 during his career, showing how he is able to get the strikeout when needed. He’s mainly a fastball-changeup style of pitcher, but he does work in a slider and curveball. The changeup is a useful weapon down-and-in to righties and down-and-away to lefties due to its horizontal movement, a solid 0.9 inches above the average for MLB.
In a recent outing against the Philadelphia Phillies (March 21), Pepiot’s fastball velocity increased 0.9 MPH from last season, going from an average of 94 MPH to 94.9 MPH. This four-seam fastball, combined with the highly-effective changeup, makes Pepiot a breakout candidate for the 2024 season. However, the young righty is trending to serve as Tampa Bay’s SP5 for the upcoming campaign.
The Ultimate Test of Starting Pitching Depth
With injuries to Tampa Bay SPs Shane McClanahan, Drew Rasmussen, Taj Bradley, and Jeffrey Springs, the Toronto Blue Jays seem to have a visible advantage. However, Toronto also has suffered injuries to their rotation in regards to Alek Manoah and Kevin Gausman. This series will certainly be a test of starting pitching depth for both squads.