The Blue Jays have a record of 73-82 with 7 games remaining in the regular season. For the first time since 2019, they were sellers at the trade deadline, not buyers (and 2019 was an acknowledged rebuilding season). They traded away the six players they had who were on expiring contracts as well as two who weren’t (P Nate Pearson and INF Isiah Kiner-Falefa) for a number of prospects (and one major league player on an expiring contract, P Ryan Yarbrough).
Considering the return that selling teams were getting for veteran pitching help, there were those who thought the Jays should have done more at the deadline, perhaps trading pitchers like Chris Bassitt and Chad Green, both of whom are under contract for 2025. Personally I’m very glad they didn’t do so. I see considerable talent on this team and I believe a full tear down would have been premature and unnecessary. There are enough good players on this team that they should be able to add to what they have, re-tool rather than rebuild, and return to contention sooner than later, maybe even next season.
Following is the first in a three part series about what the Jays have in house and what they can do to get better.
First off, the rotation:
I am actually less concerned about the Blue Jays rotation than I am about position players or their bullpen. In my opinion, they are fairly well positioned here:
The veteran trio:
The Jays acquired Jose Berrios in a deadline trade in 2021, then signed him to a 7 year, $131 million contract extension that off season. That same off season, they signed free agent Kevin Gausman to a 5 year, $110 million contract and a year later, free agent Chris Bassitt to a 3 year, $63 million contract. While the Jays have certainly spent a significant amount of money on their rotation, it has gotten them one of the better rotations in baseball over the last few seasons.
30 year old Berrios is a 9 year MLB veteran. His career 4.05 era doesn’t really tell the story of his overall consistent success. In 6 of those 9 seasons, his era has been in the 3s. He struggled as a rookie in 2016 (as many rookies do) with an 8.02 era in 14 games. He had an even 4.00 era in 12 games in the covid shortened season of 2020 (we will never know if that would have gone down or not over a full 162 game season). His one sub par season with the Jays (to date) was in 2022 where he had an inflated 5.23 era over his usual 32 games (he started exactly 32 in 2018, 2019, 2021, 2022 and 2023).
Berrios was AL pitcher of the month in April 2024 and early on, I thought the Jays might have their fifth Cy Young finalist in as many seasons before he came back to earth a bit in mid season.
His 7 year contract runs through the 2028 season with an opt out after 2026. Here is hoping he chooses not to exercise it.
33 year old Gausman was a late bloomer in term of success in MLB.
He came in to his own in his two seasons with the San Francisco Giants in 2020-2021. He was a first time all star in 2021 with a 2.81 era, 2.3 BB/9 and 10.6 K/9 in 33 games. Not bad for someone who is essentially a two pitch pitcher. Together his four seam fastball and split-fingered fastball have combined for over 85% of the pitches he has thrown in MLB. While the Jays had to give Gausman a big free agent contract to get him in the door, his production has been well worth it. His era was 3.35 in 2022, 3.16 in 2023 (which also earned him a top 3 finish in AL Cy Young voting) and 4.02 era in 2024.
If Gausman has found success with few pitches, Chris Bassitt is the opposite extreme. In an era of baseball with much focus on high velocity, Bassitt is somewhat of a throwback. His average fastball velocity over his career is 93.2 MPH. His success has come from mixing 7 (!) different pitches (fastball, cutter, splitter, sinker, slider, curveball and changeup) and good command of the strike zone. He has a career 2.8 BB/9 rate. The 35 year old, 10 year MLB veteran will be free agent eligible after the 2025 season. It will be very interesting to see what is next for him after his contract expires.
This veteran trio has mostly pitched well for the Jays in 2024. It has been interesting to note they have done well in approximately 2/3 of their starts. When they haven’t done well, unfortunately it has been feast or famine. Consider the following stats:
Berrios:
Good – 22 starts, 110.1 innings, 1.94 era
Bad – 8 starts, 39.1 innings, 8.92 era
Gausman
Good – 21 starts, 129.1 innings, 2.16 era
Bad – 9 starts, 40.2 innings, 9.96 era
Bassitt:
Good – 21 starts, 125.2 innings, 2.58 era
Bad – 8 starts, 37.2 innings, 9.80 era
With a veteran group like this has logged as many innings as they have, the Jays need to watch for the inevitable decline in performance. But for now with good overall results and having committed just over $300 million to them as a group, they will be in the rotation as long as they are healthy and pitching effectively.
The Wild Card
Yariel Rodriguez might have been the best acquisition the Jays made in the off season of 2023. Toronto signed Rodriguez to a 5 year, $32 million free agent contract.
27 year old Rodriguez might be an MLB rookie but he also has 8 years of experience pitching professionally. Cuban born Rodriguez pitched professionally in Cuba from 2015-2020, then in Japan from 2020-2022. In those 8 seasons in foreign leagues, he had a very respectable 3.07 era.
Rodriguez has pitched in 19 games for the Jays in his first year of a 5 year contract with the organization. He has done reasonably well with a 4.29 era. He also lost some time to an IL stint at the end of April until he was activated in late June.
Of note, he has pitched just 77.2 innings in those 19 starts for an average of just over 4 innings per start. Innings management likely has played a factor in his usage. YRod didn’t pitch professionally at all in 2023 and the organization is being somewhat careful, not wanting to risk injuries.
One issue for YRod to work on, going forward, is pitch command. He has 4.1 walks per 9 innings pitched and when he has had one of his less than stellar performances, walks and hit batters have played a factor.
It is safe to assume that for Rodriguez to remain in the Jays rotation longer term, they will want him to go deeper in to games and hopefully improve his command. It is interesting to note that when he pitched in Japan, he was used as a relief pitcher and he had excellent results. In 19 games in 2021 he had a 2.95 era. In 56 games in 2022 his era was a microscopic 1.15, along with 3.0 BB/9 and 9.9 K/9!
Rodriguez chose the Jays from (reportedly) multiple free agent offers, at least in part, because he wanted the chance to be a starting pitched and the Jays promised him they would give him this. Personally I have him penciled in to the 2025 rotation. However, if at some point they decide he isn’t working out there, having him pitch as a leverage relief pitcher isn’t a bad “plan B”.
The Rising Star
Back in February at spring training, Chris Bassitt paid high praise to Bowden Francis and Ricky Tiedemann.
“If Ricky or Francis needs to start for us this year and they become our No 1, I don’t think anyone would be shocked. As crazy as that is, that’s how good of stuff they have. That’s how mature they are.”
Tiedemann’s potential was well known by that point. I must admit, however, to being somewhat surprised to hear Bassitt speak so highly of Francis. Sure, Francis who was 27 in 2023 had a very fine 1.73 era in 20 games in relief and there was talk about giving him a chance to be in the rotation, I wouldn’t have thought his ceiling was anywhere near that high.
35 year old Bassitt is a 10 year MLB veteran. He knows what he is talking about.
Francis has appeared in 25 games so far with the Jays this season, 11 as a starter. Unfortunately his first stint with the team in 2024 didn’t go so well. He went on the IL with right forearm tendinitis and when the Jays activated him on June 4th, they optioned him to AAA.
He was called back up on July 29th and has looked like a different pitcher since then.
Francis was named the AL pitcher of the month for August. He had 5 starts with a 1.05 era, 0.41 whip, 39 strikeouts and 4 quality starts, highlighted by his near no hitter vs the Angels and August 24th. Long time Jays fans might be getting some Dave Stieb deja vu when they watched Francis take a second no hitter in to the 9th in his last start on September 11th vs the Mets. Maybe someday he too will be perfect.
There are those who aren’t completely convinced by Francis’ recent success. Fair enough. Let’s see what he does in 2025 when the Jays will hopefully be back in contention. Personally I have a very good feeling about this not so young (by MLB standards) man.
Depth options
Imagine two years ago, thinking of 2022 AL Cy Young finalist as a rotation depth option. The reality is that between health and inconsistent performance in 2023-2024, nobody can say with any certainty what they can reasonably expect from Manoah in the future.
In 2023, then 25 year old Manoah was arguably one of the worst starting pitchers in MLB. he made 19 starts (around a mid-season demotion to AAA) with a career worst 5.87 era. On July 29th in a game vs the Anaheim Angels, he hit Taylor Ward in the head with a pitch that ultimately ended both of their seasons. Manoah was removed from the game immediately afterward, then optioned to AAA. However for reasons known to view people outside of the organization, he didn’t actually pitch for the Bisons from that point onward until it was officially announced that his season was over.
Flash forward to 2024. Manoah made 5 starts for the Jays and looked much more like the good MLB pitcher of 2021-2022 than the terrible one of 2023. He had a 3.70 era, BB/9 was a respectable 3.0 (much better than the 6.1 he had a year earlier). Unfortunately Manoah ended up injured and had hybrid Tommy John surgery on June 17.
As he is expected to miss 12-14 months from that point, the Jays will need to begin the 2025 season without him. Assuming he is a fast healer, the earliest they should hope to see Manoah back with the team would be after the all star break (but that is probably overly optimistic).
Teams can never have too much quality pitching. Manoah will be 27 years old in 2025. He is under team control (and arbitration eligible) for three more seasons. With Chriss Bassitt free agent eligible after 2025 and Kevin Gausman after 2026, it would greatly benefit the Jays for Manoah to re-gain his prior dominance on the mound.
23 year old Bloss was originally considered to be the biggest part of the return from the Astros in the Yusei Kikuchi trade. Ultimately Bloss might have the most upside, though position players Joey Loperfido and Will Wagner have both spent time with the big club.
23 year old Bloss was drafted by the Astros in the 2023 draft so he has only had 27 games of MiLB over two seasons. He had a very fine 1.61 era in 8 games with the Astros AA team when they called him up to MLB. This might have had more to do with having a number of injuries to their MLB pitching staff than it did Bloss truly being MLB ready. His 6.94 era in 3 games with the Astros prior to the trade suggest that he needed more seasoning in the minors.
Bloss has pitched in 7 games for the AAA Buffalo Bisons with mixed results. In four of those games, he allowed no runs over a total of 13.2 innings. Two of the other 3 games were disastrous unfortunately (1.2 innings, 8 runs on August 28 and 3 innings, 8 runs, 7 earned) on September 10. In his most recent start on September 15, he lasted 4.2 innings and gave up 3 runs.
Bloss has 3 pitches all considered to be above MLB average (fastball, curveball and slider all rated 55 grade) as well as a 40 grade changeup and 50 grade control. There was originally some thought that the Jays might bring him up this season but with his mixed results at AAA, it appears they have backed off from this plan. I’m looking forward to seeing what he can do in 2025 spring training and beyond.
On paper, it appears that the Blue Jays did very well with their first round draft pick in 2024. Some people didn’t expect 21 year old Yesavage to still be available when the Jays drafted at 20th but he was and they grabbed him. He pitched for 3 years in college at East Carolina University with some impressive stats (2.58 era in 65 games, 195.1 innings, 3.4 BB/9 and 13.6 K/9).
Yesavage is currently 99th on MLB’s top 100 prospects. In terms of his arsenal, his fastball, slider and splitter are all ranked 60 grade as well as a 50 grade curveball and 50 grade control. It will be interesting to see which level the Jays start him out at in 2025.
It wouldn’t be wise to anoint Yesavage a future Blue Jays ace before his professional career even begins. We have yet to see how he will do against professional hitters, especially MLB hitters, assuming that he makes it to MLB at some point. MLB pipeline has his ETA listed as 2026, but I look at what he has accomplished in his college career and I see the possibility of him having an MLB trajectory similar to Manoah’s. If his performance doesn’t warrant a promotion to MLB in 2025, he is definitely a name to keep an eye on for their future.
Ricky Tiedemann
Blue Jays fans have heard about the 22 year old LHP’s potential for a couple of seasons now. There is no denying his talent when he is on the mound. He has a 3.02 era in 41 MiLB games over 3 seasons with an eye popping 14.5 K/9! He pitched in the Arizona Fall League in 2023 and was named AFL Pitcher of the Year even though his participation ended with two weeks left in their season. He had a 2.50 era with 11.5 K/9.
The issue for Tiedemann seems to be staying healthy. Unfortunately he has battled multiple injuries over his young professional career which has limited his playing time in each season from 2022-2024. If not for this, it was widely speculated that we might have seen his MLB debut already. Most recently, Tiedemann had Tommy John surgery on July 30th.
Recovery time from Tommy John is typically 12 months, assuming all goes well. For him to be able to pitch in 2025, he would need to rehab, beginning with a throwing program and then a rehab assignment. Though Tiedemann has been used exclusively as a starter in his pro career, there wouldn’t be time for him to get stretched out and handle a starter’s workload next season.
If he is healthy and pitching well, the Jays might consider using him out of the bullpen late next season, maybe as a September call up. If they are in contention, that could be like adding a leverage relief pitcher for the stretch drive.
An intriguing possibility
When people discuss the Jays, many say that their competitive window is coming to a close soon. Personally I refuse to take this as a given. There are various things they can do to extend their window.
35 year old Bassitt is under contract for one more season, then he is a free agent. Assuming he leaves after 2025, the Jays as they currently stand would be left with Berrios, Gausman and a number of younger pitchers with potential but each one has his own question marks.
Yusei Kikuchi is two years younger than Bassitt. He is free agent eligible after this season. He spent 2 1/2 seasons with the Jays. He truly cared about the team. In 2022 when his performance was sub par he offered to let them option him to AAA. He liked Toronto enough to spend at least part of the off season here last year – something that isn’t always the case of non-Canadian players.
When Kikuchi walked off the mound in Toronto after being removed from his final 2024 Blue Jays start, you could see tears welling up in his eyes. The Jays starting pitchers became very closely knit. It was apparently even joked about in the days leading up to the deadline for Kikuchi to “go and get the team a couple of prospects and then re-sign here in the offseason”.
How about this as part of an offseason plan for the front office? Trade Bassitt to a team in need of pitching – maybe a team with a young staff that could use a veteran as a mentor. Obviously they would want to get a decent return for him (relief pitching – hint hint). Bassitt is making $21 million per season with the Jays. Would Kikuchi return for $21 million per season over 3 or 4 years?
As a left handed pitcher who has had success in MLB, Kikuchi will no doubt have multiple offers this winter. There is no guarantee that he will re-join the Jays. If they could make it happen, in theory they wouldn’t be paying any more money than they are now, they would have a LHP who is younger than Bassitt under contract for 3 or 4 seasons instead of 1. Also the trade to the Astros appears to have been good for Kikuchi’s career. His era in 6 starts with them is a very fine 2.57, more than 2 runs per game less than the 4.75 he had in 22 starts with the Jays this season.
Kikuchi’s ceiling might be higher than Bassitt’s.
Just something for the front office to think about.
Summing up
The Jays will have a few needs this off season. They could do with an upgrade to their offence and they badly need to improve their bullpen. While we will have to wait to see what moves they actually make, it seems to be that the rotation (including depth options) that they have already built might perform well enough for them to contend in 2025.