With 47 games left, now is a good time for a Jays check-in, especially after losing in extremely dissatisfying 1-0 fashion in Cleveland last night. A game which undermined Yusei Kikuchi’s 7 strong innings in-which he allowed just 1 run on 3 hits, striking out 7 and walking just 1. The Blue Jays left 9 runners on, being shutout despite out-hitting the Guardians 9-3.
Mariners Coming For Our Playoff Spot
The Blue Birds sit 3rd in the American League East with a 64-51 record. Currently holding the final wild card position, just 2 games ahead of the Seattle Mariners who have won 6-straight, 11 of their last 13 and are 16-8 (.667%) since the All Star break. The Jays on the other hand are 14-9 in that same time frame.
On the bright side, the Jays are only a game-and-a-half behind the Houston Astros who face 2 more tough games against the Orioles at Camden Yards before moving on to much easier run-ins with the Angels (57-58) —where they manage to dodge a Shohei Ohtani pitching start— and then the treading Miami Marlins (59-56).
Best Pitching Staff in Baseball to Date
I know it’s hard to fathom, considering being just the 3rd best team in our division and having a reliably intimidating lineup. Yet the Toronto Blue Jays currently sit atop the MLB’s team ERA rankings. The Jays have managed a team-wide 3.75 ERA thus far. Which may not seem too low, yet the MLB is having an overwhelming influx of offence in 2023.
With the return of Hyun-Jin Ryu from long-term injury the Jays seemed to be in an overwhelming position with 6 starters needing consistent innings.
| # | Team | ERA | W-L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Toronto Blue Jays | 3.75 | 64-51 |
| 2 | Seattle Mariners | 3.76 | 61-52 |
| 3 | Tampa Bay Rays | 3.77 | 69-46 |
| 4 | Cleveland Guardians | 3.79 | 55-59 |
| 5 | Houston Astros | 3.81 | 65-49 |
| 6 | San Diego Padres | 3.83 | 55-59 |
| 7 | Minnesota Twins | 3.84 | 60-55 |
| 8 | San Fransisco Giants | 3.87 | 62-52 |
| 9 | Atlanta Braves | 3.91 | 71-40 |
| 10 | New York Yankees | 3.93 | 59-55 |
Gausman, Berrios, Bassit and Kikuchi have essentially solidified their importance in the rotation combining for a 3.495 ERA and a 37-23 record across 69 total starts. That’s an impressive group. The trouble starts with Hyun-Jin Ryu and Alek Manoah.
Return and Re-Injury Ryu
Ryu came back from a long-awaited IL stint lasting the entirety of the season up until August 1st. He was somewhat beat up in his 2023 debut outing against the Orioles, allowing 4 runs on 9 hits in just 5 innings. 6 days later, or two days ago Ryu returned to the rubber and began his domination against the Cleveland Guardians. Taking a no-hitter into the 5th inning, having allowed just 1 base runner when a line drive struck his right knee forcing him to be helped off the field –not before getting the out at first–. Ryu has been listed as day-to-day, and his status in the rotation remains in question.
Manoah Fighting for His Rotation Spot?
With Ryu’s return from the IL and Manoah struggling, that leaves Alek as the man out of the rotation. Come playoff time it’s likely to see the Blue Jays drop to a 4-man tandem. It’s highly likely we are seeing Ryu and Manoah compete for potential playoff bullpen innings. Though the Jays bullpen is bursting at the seams and does not need a +4 ERA guy, which both Manoah (18 starts, 83.1 Innings) and Ryu (2 starts, 9 Innings) have been, though Ryu deserves a proper sample size.
Bullpen Success
The Blue Jays bullpen is impressive to say the least. Going down the list from Tim Mayza, Jordan Romano, Erik Swanson, Yimi Garcia, Trevor Richards, Jay Jackson, Genisis Cabrera, Nate Pearson and finally the new addition Jordan Hicks. This bullpen is responsible for the 3rd most combined saves in Major League Baseball (40), the 2nd most combined holds (78), the 7th highest bullpen wins above replacement (3.9), the 7th lowest bullpen earned run average (3.69) and the 8th-least bullpen losses (18). All despite relatively unsuccessful experiments with Zach Pop, Adam Cimber, Anthony Bass and Thomas Hatch.
Romano Injury
On top of the dazzling ERA, the Jays are 3rd in the MLB in saves with 40, with Markham, Ontario’s own Jordan Romano responsible for 28 of them, which is good enough for 3rd in the AL and 5th in the MLB despite missing two-weeks with back inflammation. Romano was forced to leave the All-Star Game in Seattle in mid-July due to back discomfort and subsequently left his first appearance with similar issues forcing him to the 15-day Injury List. Romano was leading the AL in saves prior to the injury.
Bichette and Romano Interim Replacements
With the untimely injuries of two All-Stars Bo Bichette and Jordan Romano, Jays GM Ross Atkins had to think quickly to recover the pieces of a playoff push. With Bo playing almost every day at shortstop and going down without a clear timeline for a return at the time, Atkins moved to acquire Cardinals beloved shortstop Paul DeJong.
Paul DeJong
With DeJong hitting for a .220 batting average, just 13 home runs and 32 RBI, sporting a .280 OBP and .664 OPS, Jays fans can hardly wait to get Bo’s bat back in the lineup.
Though DeJong’s glove has been a refreshing change of pace from Bichette who has made 8 errors this year with a low fielding percentage of .975. DeJong on the other hand has a .991 fielding percentage with only 3 errors this season.
DeJong was known throughout the St. Louis community as a generous and kind-hearted person, who consistently gave back to the community both financially and philanthropically.
Jordan Hicks
Romano’s replacement is another Cardinal, right-handed flame throwing closer Jordan Hicks. Hicks is responsible for throwing the 3rd and 9th fastest recorded pitches in MLB history, lighting up the gun at 105.1 in 2018 and the in 2019, when he hit 104.3 with a sinker to end the ballgame and retire the Washington Nationals:
105.1 MPH, 2018.
104.3 MPH, 2019.
Hicks managed to record the fastest pitch in each of the 2018, 2019 and 2022 seasons. Baseball fans know, the more 100 MPH arms in your bullpen come playoff time, the more confident you are late in close games. It’s notable that Aroldis Chapman is responsible for the two fastest pitches in recorded pitch history, making the new Blue Jay the 2nd hardest throwing pitcher in the recorded pitch velocity era.
Aside from just throwing gas, Hicks is a 26-year-old with 223.2 career bullpen innings under his belt already despite taking the 2020 year off for the pandemic, a pivotal year in his development considering he was 23, coming off of his still career-high 14 saves, career-low 3.14 ERA and 0.94 WHIP.
He has yet to prove himself as a reliable sole-closer at the backend of a quality bullpen, though he is an incredible temporary shut-down guy partnered with Tim Mayza and Erik Swanson. Once Romano makes his return the Blue Jays bullpen will be overflowing with good arms ready to make their impact on a game any given night.
Positive and Negative Bats
Bo Bichette has been the anchor in Toronto’s lineup all season, hitting a MLB-wide 5th-highest .321, 4th-highest 144 hits and 8th in at bats (35th in plate appearances, guy likes to take hacks). His 3.3 batting WAR is the Jays’ 2nd highest, and 25th in the MLB.
Bo’s bWAR is topped only by Chapman’s 3.5, which is the MLB’s 22nd-best. Matt Chapman has managed a .350 OBP, and the MLB’s 2nd-highest double total with 35 which leads the AL, 3 above Nathaniel Lowe of the Texas Rangers.
Whit Merrifield has been incredible, and his numbers support his impact in the Blue Birds’ order. Whit’s .298 average is good enough for 11th in the MLB, and he sits 25th in hits (117).
Some guys who are due for a real upswing would be Daulton Varsho, who’s offensive value rating (-8.9) sits 17th lowest in the MLB, Santiago Espinal, Cavan Biggio, Paul DeJong and George Springer.
| Name | G | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | RBI | SB | OFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daulton Varsho | 113 | 424 | .218 | .280 | .366 | 13 | 37 | 13 | -8.9 |
| Santiago Espinal | 62 | 175 | .218 | .299 | .301 | 2 | 15 | 2 | -6.2 |
| Paul DeJong | 7 | 26 | .077 | .077 | .077 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -5.3 |
| Cavan Biggio | 71 | 187 | .208 | .289 | .387 | 8 | 22 | 3 | -2.1 |
| George Springer | 110 | 484 | .255 | .323 | .388 | 13 | 45 | 14 | -1.6 |
It was tough to keep Springer on this table considering he is on a 5-game hitting streak that’s consisted of a .450 AVG, .500 OPB, 3 RBI and 4 runs.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is another name some might argue should be on the list, though as he is 24 and already has 122 career home runs, driven in almost 400 and this year is hitting just .15 points below his stellar young career batting average of .280, we should remain patient and admire our young superstar slugger.
Davis Schneider
Firstly, let’s admire his stats through 4 MLB games:
| Name | GP | AB | R | H | HR | RBI | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davis Schneider | 4 | 17 | 3 | 9 | 2 | 5 | .529 | .579 | .882 | .1.461 |
He introduced himself to the Show in a way all baseball fans can only dream, a first at-bat home run over the green monster, against the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park.
But Davis wasn’t done there, recording a second hit after beating out a ground ball to the 2nd basemen in his debut to end the night 2 for 5. In his 2nd MLB start, Schneider was not done impressing finishing 3 for 3 with 3 singles and a walk, while scoring a run. But the 3rd game is where Babe Schneider earned his nickname from bunt-specialist and teammate Brandon Belt. The man with the moustache finished his 3rd MLB game 4 for 5 with 7 total bases, a home run, 4 runs batted in and a hit-by-pitch.
This 3-game stretch tied a 1938 record for most hits in a players’ first 3 career MLB games, which is 9. The record, funnily enough was held by a player who also had a stint with the Buffalo Bisons, Coaker Triplett. Unfortunately Triplett’s 9 hits for the Chicago Cubs in his first 3 games marked his only 9 hits the entire ’38 season, and he was sent down a few weeks after failing to reach base in 22-straight plate appearances afterwards.
Davis Schneider’s historic first 3 games:
| Date | Opp | AB | R | H | TB | HR | RBI | BB | HBP | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 4 | @ Bos | 5 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | .400 | .400 | 1.000 |
| Aug 5 | @ Bos | 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | .625 | .667 | 1.000 |
| Aug 6 | @ Bos | 5 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | .692 | .733 | 1.154 |
| Total | 13 | 3 | 9 | 15 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 1 | .692 | .733 | 1.154 |
Fielding Positives
The Jays are currently tied 7th in the MLB in both fielding percentage (.988) and errors (50) with the Minnesota Twins, and Brandon Belt has yet to make an error in 25 games and 208.2 innings at 1st base.
World Series Odds & Playoff Chances
According to MLB.com and their most recent post-trade deadline power rankings the Jays are the 8th best team in baseball. A major hurdle they face is that the 2nd and 4th best teams are both staples in the top-5 of this list and are also in the American League East with the Blue Jays. Those teams being the Baltimore Orioles (70-43) and the Tampa Bay Rays (69-46), respectively.
The way sports books are seeing it, there are 6 real title contenders and the Blue Jays are the 7th or 8th best team in baseball. Here’s how the hierarchy stacks up from a odds maker’s standpoint:
Favourites
• Atlanta Braves (+350)
• Los Angeles Dodgers (+360)
Contenders
• Texas Rangers (+625)
• Houston Astros (+675)
• Tampa Bay Rays (+700)
• Baltimore Orioles (+700)
Underdogs
• Toronto Blue Jays (+1600)
• Philadelphia Phillies (+1800)
Longshots
• Minnesota Twins (+2000)
• Seattle Mariners (+2200)
Odds from bet365
(Photo Credit: AP Photo/Michael Dwyer)