The MLB off season is more than half over. Atkins’ comments in early November led Blue Jays faithful to believe that significant augments would be coming to a team that made the playoffs in three of the last four seasons, only to be swept out of the first round.
So far there have been minor moves at best. They picked up the option on relief pitcher Chad Green. They re-signed 4 time gold glove winning CF Kevin Kiermaier. They signed utility player Isiah Kiner-Falefa in a move that came as a surprise to many.
And so far, that’s it.
In 2023 the Jays’ strength was pitching and defence. When they struggled, it was usually due to inability to score runs. So it’s more than a little bit surprising that their only moves to date have been to add to pitching and defence. Kiner-Falefa is also a past gold glove winner (3B in 2020) but with a career .660 OPS he is hardly what anyone would call an impact hitter.
Atkins addressed the media this past week, along with Kiermaier and Kiner-Falefa. Speaking for myself, Atkins’ remarks didn’t do much to put my concerns about the Jays current situation to rest. If anything, I’m more nervous now than I was a week ago.
Yes, it was confirmed that they initially aimed as high as they could, for Shohei Ohtani, the biggest free agent on this year’s market. Great for them for making their best pitch to him. But ultimately it didn’t work. Fine. There are other impact players available. The moment the Jays learned they weren’t getting Ohtani, they should have pivoted to plan B, C, D, E and F. And for all those of us with no inside knowledge know, maybe they did. Maybe they have been turned down again and again. Maybe they are waiting to hear back from players, looking for the best deal they think they can get. There are all kinds of possible reasons why nothing likely to have a major impact on future scoring has happened.
The bottom line is that we are still waiting.
Then to hear Atkins this past week try to claim that the Jays already have the talent in house to improve and what needs to be done is to “…better support and help the players…”, whatever that even means. If Atkins really believes this then he seriously needs to re-evaluate the team and the players currently available.
Assuming that each player has the best offensive season that could realistically be expected from him, given the career each has had to date, the Jays could field 4 impact hitters each game. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, George Springer and Alejandro Kirk have all been all stars, and all of them had an OPS in 2023 below their career average. Danny Jansen was having a good season with a .786 OPS before his season ended early due to injury. Sure, if the Jays are desperate for offence, they could have whichever one of Jansen and Kirk isn’t catching on a given day in the lineup as a DH, but this is sub-optimal to do on a regular basis. Catcher is one of the most demanding (if not THE most demanding) positions in baseball. When a catcher has a day off, it’s best to give him a full day off and let him rest for his next game. Also, having your second catcher already in the game as the DH is risky. If that day’s catcher needs to leave the game, then you would lose your DH for the rest of the game if you need to move him behind the plate.
None of Kiermaier, Kiner-Falefa, or Daulton Varsho have been what one might call impact offensive threats in their careers. They can make a difference with defence, not nearly as much at the plate. They don’t currently have a DH and who knows who their 2B will be as things stand.
Essentially, they have come close to replicating the team they had in 2023. The one that has yet to win a playoff game, never mind a series, and nothing close to the deep playoff run we have all been assured is coming.
Atkins apparently mentioned several times that he likes the team the Blue Jays already have. He also commented “…I don’t think we’ll add three players. I think, most likely, that it’s closer to one”, and that they are looking seriously at a DH or another OF. There are those who have pointed out that he could be simply posturing, “negotiating through the media”. That maybe he thinks the Jays could get better deals, either with free agents or trade partners, if they come across as optimistic about the current group and only wanting to add one player. Well I sure hope that this is the case, I’m just not convinced.
There are still plenty of impact bats left on the market. Two that I have previously mentioned are Cody Bellinger and JD Martinez. Additionally, Rhys Hoskins, Jorge Soler, former Jay Teoscar Hernandez and Joc Pederson are players who could give their offence a much needed boost.
Spring training is still over a month away. Lots can, and hopefully will, still happen. Nevertheless I’m baffled as to how Atkins can claim that the offensive downturn the Jays had in 2023 was “just a blip”. Unfortunately I don’t see a path forward for the Jays as their roster is currently constructed. Even one strong offensive addition might not be enough. They need a minimum of two to stand a chance in my opinion.
Hopefully by the time spring training begins, things will look very different for the Jays.