After two rounds of the 2025 March Madness tournament, all four No. 1 seeds remain. But as the Sweet 16 begins on Thursday, March 27, the road gets tougher for the favorites. Duke, Florida, Houston, and Auburn enter as the odds on favorites to win the tournament (in that order), but will all four one-seeds survive an upset and advance to the Elite Eight?
This article will break down each matchup involving a one-seeded team, analyzing their strengths, weaknesses, and how vulnerable they are to an upset that could bust your bracket.
Duke: The Favorites
Cooper Flagg and company enter the Sweet 16 as the betting favorites to win the tournament, and for good reason. The Duke’s 33-3 record is incredibly impressive, and so are their KenPom metrics, which have them as the best offense in the country and the fourth-best defense, good enough to make them the most efficient team in college basketball. From start to finish, the Blue Devils have looked like the most talented squad in college basketball.
Duke steamrolled its first two tournament opponents, dismantling No. 16 seed Mount St. Mary’s by 44 and cruising past No. 9 Baylor by 23. Blowout wins have been routine for the ACC champions, but as the competition stiffens, so will the challenge.
This Duke team has comfortably handled every opponent thus far, including their next challenger, the Arizona Wildcats, whom Duke defeated 69-55 back in November. Arizona doesn’t appear dominant on paper, ranking 13th in offensive efficiency and 28th in defense per KenPom. However, they have looked dangerous in their two tournament victories. Dropping 93 points on Akron and 87 on Oregon has turned heads, and if they stay hot, they could give Duke a real fight.
The key for Arizona? Defense. Outscoring Duke in a track meet is unlikely, but they’ll have a shot if the Wildcats can slow down Duke’s tempo and let their talented backcourt of Jaden Bradley and Caleb Love push the pace on the other end. However, Duke has consistently played at a slow pace of the offense. Therefore, Arizona will need to create turnovers and play their best defensive game of the season. Although Duke will play at a slow tempo on their own accord, this playstyle works into the hands of Love’s offense.
Still, it will take a near-perfect performance to pull off the upset. The one potential crack in Duke’s armor? Experience. Flagg leads a team loaded with freshmen, and history has shown that youth can be a stumbling block in March. But if raw talent is enough to get it done, Duke looks primed to prove it, but a statement win over Arizona is needed first.
Florida: The Unstoppable Force
To be the champs, you have to beat the champs, and the Florida Gators did just that in the round of 32, knocking off reigning two-time champions UConn and ending their quest for a historic three-peat.
Florida might be the hottest team in the country at the moment, making an upset loss in the tournament seem unlikely. They rolled into March Madness with a 32-4 record and fresh off an SEC championship, a conference widely regarded as the best in college basketball.
Led by All-American guard Walter Clayton Jr., Florida has looked unstoppable all year. However, UConn gave them a real scare. Their 77-75 win over the Huskies proved they have what it takes to win it all, but it also exposed some weaknesses. Can a top NBA Draft prospect, Derik Queen, and his Maryland squad be the ones to knock off the Gators?
Florida’s biggest strength is balance. The team is solid on all fronts and can score from anywhere, but its size in the frontcourt could be a nightmare for Maryland. Experience is also a major advantage for Florida, as seniors like Clayton, Alijah Martin, and Will Richard know what it takes to win, potentially spelling trouble for a relatively young Terrapins squad.
Maryland has been solid all year, with a 27-8 record. Queen has made them a force to be reckoned with, getting them to their first Sweet 16 since 2016. But after Queen’s buzzer-beater against Colorado State, they now must defy all odds by taking down Florida. The key? Staying out of foul trouble. Maryland could stand a chance if Queen and Julian Reese can avoid early fouls. This game will be won in the frontcourt and on the glass.
If Florida has a weakness, it’s on defense. A player like Queen could expose those struggles if he stays on the floor. Out of all four No. 1 seeds competing in the Sweet 16, Florida seems the least vulnerable to an upset, as they match up well with Maryland.
Houston: Defence and Grit
The Houston Cougars are making their sixth straight Sweet 16 appearance, and this might be their best team yet. Out of the past five Houston squads to make the Sweet 16, only two advanced to the Elite Eight. Now, they take on last year’s tournament finalist, Purdue, in an attempt to make it three of six.
Kelvin Sampson has built a program defined by defense and grit since he arrived in 2014. However, in past years, Houston has lacked the offensive firepower and clutch shot-making to go all the way. Enter LJ Cryer. A first-year Cougar who transferred from Baylor, Cryer had 15 points in Houston’s first-round win over SIU Edwardsville and dropped 30 in their gritty victory over Gonzaga. What is the best part about this year’s Cougars? They have multiple players who can step up in clutch moments, something previous teams sorely lacked.
Houston brings the nation’s best defense against a Purdue team that will need Braden Smith and Trey Kaufman-Renn to have their best performances of the season. Purdue boasts the seventh-most efficient offense per KenPom, but their 55th-ranked defense could be their Achilles’ heel. Though Purdue looked strong defensively against High Point and McNeese, neither opponent compares to Houston’s top-10 offense.
The key to this game? Opposite strengths. Houston must maintain its hot shooting from the Gonzaga game while shutting down Purdue’s guards and rebounding the ball. On the other hand, Purdue must deliver its best defensive performance of the season to keep up. If Houston struggles to score, especially late in the game, it could spell an earlier-than-expected exit.
Auburn: No. 1 Overall Seed
The Auburn Tigers earned the No. 1 overall seed with a 30-5 record. Led by Naismith Player of the Year candidate Johni Broome, Auburn spent most of the season atop the AP rankings but stumbled into the tournament, losing three of their last four games. They even trailed at halftime against Creighton before pulling away late to win 82-70. Now, they face Big Ten champion Michigan, one of the hottest teams in the country.
Auburn hasn’t looked dominant, but they’ve found ways to win. Could Michigan be their worst matchup yet? Auburn has the third-most efficient offense, but Michigan ranks 13th in defense. The Wolverines will look to slow the game down in an effort to pull off the upset.
Broome has been dominant all season, but Michigan’s frontcourt duo of Vladislav Goldin and Danny Wolf could pose a serious threat. Goldin and Wolf have clicked in the tournament, and while their wins over UC San Diego and Texas A&M were impressive, Auburn will be the toughest offense they’ve faced.
Auburn could be in for its toughest test yet. If they win this matchup, their path to the Final Four becomes much clearer. However, Michigan has struggled with turnovers all year, and Auburn will need to capitalize. Winning the turnover battle and controlling the paint will be critical.
Which No. 1 Seeds Could Be Upset?
Duke – It is unlikely the Blue Devils will lose to Arizona, but their defense must be up to the task of stopping the streaky Arizona guards. Flagg must dominate.
Florida – The most unlikely to fall. The Gators match up well with this inexperienced Maryland team. Dominating the paint and drawing fouls will be key.
Houston – Possibly in danger. The offense will need to stay hot. The defense should do its thing against Purdue; they have stopped tougher offensive units this season. It won’t be anything they haven’t seen before. Taking advantage of Purdue’s defensive weakness will be needed. Scoring drought cannot be afforded.
Auburn – The most likely to suffer an upset. They do not match up well against a hot Michigan team. The offense will need to find its grove from earlier in the season. Draw fouls, create turnovers, and dominate the paint in order to avoid the upset.
The Sweet 16 is here! Enjoy the Madness before it ends, and watch out for these No. 1 seeds as they continue their quest for greatness in 2025.